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| Nelson S. Lima, PhD, CEO |
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| 1st Congress of the European Intelligence Institute |
What is the Executive Intelligence?
According to Justin Menkes, executive intelligence is the ability to digest, often with the help of others, large amounts of information in order to form important decisions.
Menkes says, "Personality is not a differentiator of star talent. It is an individual's facility for clear thinking or intelligence that largely determines their leadership success."
What do you think is the relative importance of executive intelligence, style, and personality in effective leaders?
Stephen Burkett said: "… I find that the core of the issue remains the definition of executive intelligence … Executive intelligence is less about number-crunching power or one's grasp of advanced concepts, and more about evaluating situations and taking appropriate action." Quinton van Eeden added, "Executive intelligence seems to be the sum of the parts—emotional intelligence, IQ, personality, values, and experience … A demonstration of executive intelligence must lie in the demonstrable ability to act and execute." Paul Jackson took us to the next step in commenting, "Once defined, how do we measure executive intelligence? Once measured, how do we assess its impact or usefulness?" And, we might add, how do we incorporate it into our everyday assessment of potential or actual leadership talent?
There was a full range of opinions regarding the importance of EI, perhaps in part due to the breadth with which the term was defined in each case. For example, Rowland Freeman opined, "Intelligence is of value, but more important is demonstrated common sense. Some of the most intelligent leaders I have known were failures at leadership." As Malvin Bernal put it, "Executive intelligence will only guarantee a sound processing of information that produces decisions … Execution is the basic ingredient that makes a great leader." On the other hand, Philip Derrow argued, "Executive intelligence, particularly as Mr. Menkes defines it, is, I believe, the most important component for long-term leadership effectiveness … Three words that best describe effective people in any organization: smart and happy. Both the order and the conjunction are important . . . ." Harry Tucci went even further, saying: "The concept of executive intelligence is a very useful measure of success … When it comes to meeting earnings and Street expectations I'll take the manager with his nose deep in a book any day".
In: http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/5449.html
Read more:http://uk.askmen.com/money/successful_150/155_success.html
Space Colonization
Our Future or Fantasy?Humans have always been fascinated by the idea of space travel. Some even believe that colonizing new planets is man’s best hope for the future. The popular idea is that we’ll eventually need some fresh, unexploited new worlds to inhabit.
In a recent Galaxy post Stephen Hawking, world-celebrated expert on the cosmological theories of gravity and black holes who holds Issac Newton's Lucasian Chair at Cambridge University, say that he believes that traveling into space is the only way humans will be able to survive in the long-term.
"Life on Earth," Hawking has said, "is at the ever-increasing risk of being wiped out by a disaster such as sudden global warming, nuclear war, a genetically engineered virus or other dangers ... I think the human race has no future if it doesn't go into space."
Another of his famous quotes reiterates his position that we need to get off the planet relatively soon. "I don't think the human race will survive the next 1,000 years unless we spread into space."
The problems with Hawking’s solution is that while it may save a “seed” of human life- a few lucky specimens- it won’t save Earth’s inhabitants. The majority of Earthlings would surely be left behind on a planet increasingly unfit for life.
In a futuristic mode similar to Hawking, both Steven Dick, chief NASA historian and Carnegie-Mellon robotics pundit, Hans Moravec, believe that human biological evolution is but a passing phase: the future of mankind will be as vastly evolved sentient machines capable of self-replicating and exploring the farthest reaches of the Universe programmed with instructions on how to recreate earth life and humans to target stars.
Dick believes that if there is a flaw in the logic of the Fermi Paradox, and extraterrestrials are a natural outcome of cosmic evolution, then cultural evolution may have resulted in a post-biological universe in which machines are the predominant intelligence.
Renowned science-fiction writer, Charlie Stross, argued last week in his High Frontier Redux blog that space colonization is not in our future, not because it's impossible, but because to do so effectively you need either outrageous amounts of cheap energy, highly efficient robot probes, or "a magic wand."
"I'm going to take it as read that the idea of space colonization isn't unfamiliar," Stross opens his post, "domed cities on Mars, orbiting cylindrical space habitats a la J. D. Bernal or Gerard K. O'Neill, that sort of thing. Generation ships that take hundreds of years to ferry colonists out to other star systems where — as we are now discovering — there are profusions of planets to explore."
"The obstacles facing us are immense distance and time -the scale factor involved in space travel is strongly counter-intuitive."
Stross adds that "Planets that are already habitable insofar as they orbit inside the habitable zone of their star, possess free oxygen in their atmosphere, and have a mass, surface gravity and escape velocity that are not too forbidding, are likely to be somewhat rarer. (And if there is free oxygen in the atmosphere on a planet, that implies something else — the presence of pre-existing photosynthetic life, a carbon cycle, and a bunch of other stuff that could well unleash a big can of whoop-ass on an unprimed human immune system."
Stross sums up by saying that while "I won't rule out the possibility of such seemingly-magical technology appearing at some time in the future in the absence of technology indistinguishable from magic that, interstellar travel for human beings even in the comfort of our own Solar System is near-as-dammit a non-starter."
Stross's blog received over 450 comments as of this writing. The most prescient follows:
"First, Stross's analysis fails to take into account future civilization types; I get the sense that he takes a normative view of today's technological and economic realities and projects them into the future. This is surprising, not only because he's an outstanding science fiction visionary, but also because he's a transhumanist who has a very good grasp on what awaits humanity in the future. Specifically, he should be taking into account the possibility of post-Singularity, Drexlerian, Kardashev Type II civilizations. Essentially, we're talking about post-scarcity civilizations with access to molecular assembling nanotechnology, radically advanced materials, artificial superintelligence, and access to most of the energy available in the solar system.
"Stross also too easily dismisses how machine intelligences, uploaded entities and AGI will impact on how space could be colonized. He speculates about biological humans being sent from solar system to solar system, and complains of the psychological and social hardships that could be inflicted on an individual or crew. He even speculates about the presence of extraterrestrial pathogens that undoubtedly awaits our daring explorers. This is a highly unlikely scenario. Biological humans will have no role to play in space. Instead, this work will be done by robots and quite possibly cyborgs (which is how the term 'cyborg' came to exist in the first place)."
Related Posts >>
Transformers -The Movie & Evolution of Machine Intelligence
2010 and beyond!
Here are the top ten forecasts for 2010 and beyond.1. Your phone will tell you when you’re in love. Mobile devices are enabling new spontaneous connections in real-world settings, including love connections. One day soon, your phone will play matchmaker, recommending that you introduce yourself to someone nearby whose online profile displays tastes or passions similar to yours. Impossible? An iPhone application called Serendipity is currently being commercialized by MIT researchers.
2. In the design economy of the future, people will download and print their own products, including auto parts, jewelry, and even the kitchen sink. Rapid prototyping, or 3-D printing, and devices like the RepRap self-reproducing printer are allowing people to design, customize, and print objects from their home computers. In the future, cheaper versions of these devices could disrupt manufacturing business models, resulting in far cheaper products individually tailored to every customer’s desire.
3. The era of brain-to-brain telepathy dawns. Neuroscientist David Poeppel says that telepathic communication between brains is possible, so long as “communication” is understood to be electromagnetic signals and not words. Technologies like magnetoencephalography, which pick up the various signals the brain sends out, could be used to pick up specific signals and convey them. If you could train your brain to signal in Morse code, sensors in a helmet could pick up the message and send it to another helmet.
4. Tomorrow’s inventors will spend their days writing descriptions of the problems they want to solve, and then letting computers find the solutions. Invention programs like Gregory Hornby’s “evolutionary algorithm” have been used to invent real-world objects, such as a special space antenna, based entirely on engineering specifications. Continued advances will increasingly rely on cross-fertilization between the fields of biology and computer science. As a result, we will develop not only software that can produce better inventions but also inventions that are able to adapt to their environments.
5. Micronations built on artificial islands will dramatically shift the face of global politics. New forms of government and unusual political models will begin to emerge, including corporate nation-states, religious states, tax-free zones, single-function countries, cause-related countries, and even rental nation-states, where organizations can “rent a country” for a year or two to test a specific project.
6. Young people will read more, and the old will play more video games. According to the 2007 American Time Use Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed some surprising findings. In 2007, adults aged 75 and older spent nearly twice as much time playing video games (about 20 minutes) as they did in 2006. Teens aged 15–19 spent twice as much time reading as they did before (about 14 minutes) and less time using a computer for games or casual surfing.
7. Ammonia may become the fuel of choice for cars by 2020. As a candidate source for hydrogen used in fuel cells, ammonia (comprising one nitrogen and three hydrogen atoms) is plentiful, easier to liquefy than methane, and emits nitrogen rather than carbon, thus having fewer negative impacts on the climate.
8. Algae may become the new oil. According to researchers at a Department of Energy plant in New Mexico, single-celled microalgae, grown in pond water, produce a biofuel that is lead-free and biodegradable, emits two-thirds less carbon dioxide and other pollutants than gasoline, and can run any modern diesel engine. Even better, algae require only a fraction of the land area of biofuel-producing crops.
9. Radical methods of altering the planet may be the only way to prevent the worst effects of climate change. Geoengineering may be inevitable because, even if humans could instantly end all greenhouse gas emissions, global temperatures would continue to increase for the next 20–30 years, triggering feedback loops and more warming. Potential megascale geoengineering projects include sending space mirrors into orbit, sequestering carbon in the ground in biomass charcoal, and increasing the amount of carbon that the ocean can absorb by forcing plankton blooms in the seas.
10. The existence of extraterrestrial life will be confirmed or conclusively denied within a generation. New space missions and advanced computer technology could confirm the existence of extraterrestrials soon. Scientists using NASA’s Spitzer Space Telescope have found that at least 20%—and perhaps as many as 60%—of Sun-like stars could have rocky planets. Next generation, AI-driven space probes may allow us to plot the location of every planetary body in the known universe. Among the more than 300 extra-solar worlds already discovered, probably one has some form of life, according to Dimitar Sasselov, an astronomer and director of Harvard University’s Origins of Life Initiative.
News from Institute for Alternative Futures
Disruptive Innovation: The Future of Primary Health Care
IAF Senior Associate Jay Herson was recently published in the Conference Volume for the World Futures Society annual meeting, WorldFuture 2009: Innovation and Creativity in a Complex World. The paper makes the case that health-care reform and market forces will force walk-in retail clinics to evolve, via a disruptive innovation, into retail pharmacy-based primary care group practices with physicians added to the provider team. There are currently about 2,000 walk-in clinics, with services provided by nurse practitioners and physician assistants, located at chain retail pharmacy sites.
Health-care reform is likely to provide incentives in primary care for electronic medical records, e-prescribing, and use of evidence-based disease management protocols. These innovations require large information technology infrastructures and levels of medical supervision and computer expertise. The transition created by health-care reform will create a more patient-centric system and attract a new generation of physicians interested in practicing medicine without the need to be involved in business issues.
The ability to retrieve patient information from any location is likely to expand the services and the customer base of retail clinics. The future of primary care will likely include the expansion of retail pharmacy clinics into employee health offices for large companies. The transition will result in a standardization of primary care processes and changing the doctor-patient relationship. Retail pharmacy based clinics offer the scale necessary to bring about many innovations in health-care reform and to offer reasonable, although perhaps not optimal, care for most primary-care indications.
You can order a copy of the WFS Conference Volume here on the WFS website.
IAF Launches Presence in Social Networks
In January, IAF unveiled a new look, revealing a change in logo to represent the first step in a longer process to update IAF's brand to reflect how its role, mission and capabilities have evolved over the past three decades. Another step in this process has been greater use of social networking tools to increase IAF's exposure in discussions about the future. IAF now has a YouTube Channel featuring a short video introduction to IAF President Jonathan Peck and excerpts from a speech by IAF Chairman Clem Bezold to Fleishman-Hillard on the Future of Food and Preventing and Reversing Diabetes. IAF has a new Facebook "fan page," a LinkedIn group, and a WordPress blog for the Authentic Futures Project.
These social networking tools are designed to keep you better updated with IAF, as well as to open up meaningful discussions about futures and foresight. So become a fan of IAF on Facebook, join our IAF LinkedIn group, and let us know what you think on the Authentic Futures blog. We hope you will take advantage of these avenues to explore the future with us.Pro-Poor Foresight Articles Published The Institute for Alternative Futures recently collaborated with foresight: The Journal of Futures Studies, Strategic Thinking and Policy to put together a special edition highlighting a recent workshop on Foresight for Smart Globalization: Accelerating and Enhancing Pro-Poor Development Opportunities. The workshop was supported by the Rockefeller Foundation and facilitated by IAF. It included leading thinkers in foresight, development and policy from around the globe. Papers from the workshop have been updated and published in the latest edition of foresight. Included in the latest issue are illustrations from the meeting by futurist and graphic facilitator, Joe Ravetz. Upcoming EventsIAF is planning a Foresight Seminar in September on "Healthcare Reform Through The Looking Glass of Myeloma" that will look at needed changes in medicine, regulation and reimbursement.
IAF is organizing an invitational workshop on "Optimal Futures for Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies" planned for September 22, 2009 in Washington, D.C. with funding from the Society for Women's Health Research.
IAF Senior Associate Jay Herson was recently published in the Conference Volume for the World Futures Society annual meeting, WorldFuture 2009: Innovation and Creativity in a Complex World. The paper makes the case that health-care reform and market forces will force walk-in retail clinics to evolve, via a disruptive innovation, into retail pharmacy-based primary care group practices with physicians added to the provider team. There are currently about 2,000 walk-in clinics, with services provided by nurse practitioners and physician assistants, located at chain retail pharmacy sites.
Health-care reform is likely to provide incentives in primary care for electronic medical records, e-prescribing, and use of evidence-based disease management protocols. These innovations require large information technology infrastructures and levels of medical supervision and computer expertise. The transition created by health-care reform will create a more patient-centric system and attract a new generation of physicians interested in practicing medicine without the need to be involved in business issues.
The ability to retrieve patient information from any location is likely to expand the services and the customer base of retail clinics. The future of primary care will likely include the expansion of retail pharmacy clinics into employee health offices for large companies. The transition will result in a standardization of primary care processes and changing the doctor-patient relationship. Retail pharmacy based clinics offer the scale necessary to bring about many innovations in health-care reform and to offer reasonable, although perhaps not optimal, care for most primary-care indications.
You can order a copy of the WFS Conference Volume here on the WFS website.
IAF Launches Presence in Social Networks
In January, IAF unveiled a new look, revealing a change in logo to represent the first step in a longer process to update IAF's brand to reflect how its role, mission and capabilities have evolved over the past three decades. Another step in this process has been greater use of social networking tools to increase IAF's exposure in discussions about the future. IAF now has a YouTube Channel featuring a short video introduction to IAF President Jonathan Peck and excerpts from a speech by IAF Chairman Clem Bezold to Fleishman-Hillard on the Future of Food and Preventing and Reversing Diabetes. IAF has a new Facebook "fan page," a LinkedIn group, and a WordPress blog for the Authentic Futures Project.
These social networking tools are designed to keep you better updated with IAF, as well as to open up meaningful discussions about futures and foresight. So become a fan of IAF on Facebook, join our IAF LinkedIn group, and let us know what you think on the Authentic Futures blog. We hope you will take advantage of these avenues to explore the future with us.Pro-Poor Foresight Articles Published The Institute for Alternative Futures recently collaborated with foresight: The Journal of Futures Studies, Strategic Thinking and Policy to put together a special edition highlighting a recent workshop on Foresight for Smart Globalization: Accelerating and Enhancing Pro-Poor Development Opportunities. The workshop was supported by the Rockefeller Foundation and facilitated by IAF. It included leading thinkers in foresight, development and policy from around the globe. Papers from the workshop have been updated and published in the latest edition of foresight. Included in the latest issue are illustrations from the meeting by futurist and graphic facilitator, Joe Ravetz. Upcoming EventsIAF is planning a Foresight Seminar in September on "Healthcare Reform Through The Looking Glass of Myeloma" that will look at needed changes in medicine, regulation and reimbursement.
IAF is organizing an invitational workshop on "Optimal Futures for Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies" planned for September 22, 2009 in Washington, D.C. with funding from the Society for Women's Health Research.
Upcoming Events
Health Equity: Focusing on Health in All Policies, DRA Foresight Briefing,
February 20th, 2009, Washington, DC.
Wiser Futures Workshop, World Future 2009: Innovation and Creativity in a Complex World, IAF Futurists Clem Bezold, Craig Bettles and Eric Meade,
July 17th, Chicago, IL.
Health For All and a Health Care System Worth Creating, World Future 2009: Innovation and Creativity in a Complex World, IAF Futurists Clem Bezold and Craig Bettles,
July 18th-19th, Chicago, IL.
The Futures of China, World Future 2009: Innovation and Creativity in a Complex World, IAF Futurist Eric Meade and Social Technologies Futurist John Cashman,
July 18th-19th, Chicago, IL.
February 20th, 2009, Washington, DC.
Wiser Futures Workshop, World Future 2009: Innovation and Creativity in a Complex World, IAF Futurists Clem Bezold, Craig Bettles and Eric Meade,
July 17th, Chicago, IL.
Health For All and a Health Care System Worth Creating, World Future 2009: Innovation and Creativity in a Complex World, IAF Futurists Clem Bezold and Craig Bettles,
July 18th-19th, Chicago, IL.
The Futures of China, World Future 2009: Innovation and Creativity in a Complex World, IAF Futurist Eric Meade and Social Technologies Futurist John Cashman,
July 18th-19th, Chicago, IL.
The TOP 10 cognitive fitness events 2009
The market for software applications that can help assess and enhance cognitive functions (Cognitive Fitness) is rapidly growing, as outlined in SharpBrains' report The State of the Brain Fitness Software Market 2008.
Published in March of this year, the report estimates that Brain Fitness market revenues grew from $100m in 2005 to $225m in 2007, in the US alone.
Important developments during 2008 underscore the solid fundamentals for the continued growth of this category: public policy initiatives, wide scale cognitive assessments, multiple venture capital investments, major initiatives by insurance companies, and new published research.
SharpBrains forecasts the market to grow above $2b by 2015.
February: Dakim secures a $10.6m investment from Galen Partners. Jack LaLanne becomes spokesperson.
April: The Government of Ontario, Canada, invests $10m in Baycrest to develop and commercialize cognitive fitness technologies.
April: University of Michigan researchers reveal in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences how computerized working memory training can generalize and improve fluid intelligence in healthy adults.
May: Humana unveils Games for Health initiatives, not renewing its agreement with Posit Science.
June: The US Army launches a new policy requiring cognitive screenings of all soldiers before deployment (in order to better diagnose potential brain-based disorders such as PTSD and TBI upon return).
June: Lumos Labs secures $3m investment from FirstMark Capital and Norwest Venture Partners.
July: Health insurer OptumHealth announces a 3-year, $18m agreement with Brain Resource to offer web-based cognitive assessments to inform clinical diagnostics and treatments.
August: CogniFit secures $5m from Milk Capital.
September: The Paul Wellstone and Pete Domenici Mental Health Parity and Addiction Equity Act of 2008 is signed into law.
October: Allstate launches a large-scale research project to measure the impact of Posit Science InSight on driver safety for adults aged 50-75.
Published in March of this year, the report estimates that Brain Fitness market revenues grew from $100m in 2005 to $225m in 2007, in the US alone.
Important developments during 2008 underscore the solid fundamentals for the continued growth of this category: public policy initiatives, wide scale cognitive assessments, multiple venture capital investments, major initiatives by insurance companies, and new published research.
SharpBrains forecasts the market to grow above $2b by 2015.
February: Dakim secures a $10.6m investment from Galen Partners. Jack LaLanne becomes spokesperson.
April: The Government of Ontario, Canada, invests $10m in Baycrest to develop and commercialize cognitive fitness technologies.
April: University of Michigan researchers reveal in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences how computerized working memory training can generalize and improve fluid intelligence in healthy adults.
May: Humana unveils Games for Health initiatives, not renewing its agreement with Posit Science.
June: The US Army launches a new policy requiring cognitive screenings of all soldiers before deployment (in order to better diagnose potential brain-based disorders such as PTSD and TBI upon return).
June: Lumos Labs secures $3m investment from FirstMark Capital and Norwest Venture Partners.
July: Health insurer OptumHealth announces a 3-year, $18m agreement with Brain Resource to offer web-based cognitive assessments to inform clinical diagnostics and treatments.
August: CogniFit secures $5m from Milk Capital.
September: The Paul Wellstone and Pete Domenici Mental Health Parity and Addiction Equity Act of 2008 is signed into law.
October: Allstate launches a large-scale research project to measure the impact of Posit Science InSight on driver safety for adults aged 50-75.
The Future of the Planet
Spirituality and Capitalism
For many of us the past few months have felt incredibly volatile. What I have appreciated most about resting as a witness to this volatility is the profound study of contrasts offered: at a time when we are confronted by what I have come to call “meltdown capitalism” we have also collectively acted to elect a historic and rare inspirational figure to the highest political office in the world.... [+More... ]
For many of us the past few months have felt incredibly volatile. What I have appreciated most about resting as a witness to this volatility is the profound study of contrasts offered: at a time when we are confronted by what I have come to call “meltdown capitalism” we have also collectively acted to elect a historic and rare inspirational figure to the highest political office in the world.... [+More... ]
Future of the U.S. Space Program
As the moments tick away before tonight's scheduled launch of the space shuttle Endeavour to the International Space Station (ISS), another countdown is underway: Only a handful of launches remain before the shuttle program's scheduled retirement in 2010. When President-elect Barack Obama takes office two months from now, he and his aides will need to decide quickly whether or not to hold to that date, a determination that will have major implications for the future of U.S. space exploration. Read more....
The Future of Foresight under Obama
By IAF V.P. for Business Development and Futurist Eric Meade
The Democratic Party described the presidential election of 2008 as a choice between the past and the future, and at least generationally, that is true. More significantly, however, the election of Obama suggests a marked change in the way our government and society will think about the future.
Commenting on the Russia-Georgia conflict during the October 7th "town hall" debate with John McCain, President-elect Obama said, "The other thing we have to do, though, is we've got to see around the corners. We've got to anticipate some of these problems ahead of time...We haven't been doing enough of that."
Futurists see around the corners by trying to anticipate major shifts or conflicts ahead of time.
As a new administration comes into office under President Obama, there is tremendous opportunity to return active foresight to the top levels of government.
During the 1970's, many foresight programs existed at various levels of government. Examples include Congress' Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) and Congressional Clearinghouse on the Future as well as several projects in "anticipatory democracy," such as Gov. Jimmy Carter's "Goals for Georgia" and Gov. Dan Evans' "Alternatives for Washington."
In 1974, the House Select Committee on Committees stipulated that each standing committee "shall review and study on a continuing basis undertake futures research and forecasting on matters within its jurisdiction," a rarely observed requirement that remains on the books to this day.An Obama administration is likely to revive this tradition of government foresight. Several members of Obama's team, including Daniel Kammen, an energy and public policy professor at the University of California (Berkley), are long-range thinkers with experience with futures work or with long-term strategy projects. The transition team has also expressed interest in several projects focused on long-term futures, including the Project for National Security Reform.
In fact, the election of Obama and the re-emergence of a general interest in foresight are things a futurist might have foreseen, even in early 2007 when pundits were predicting a grueling death-match between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani. First, the passing of the leadership torch from the Boomers to Generation X has profound implications, freeing Boomers to play a visionary elder role while the more pragmatic crisis-responders of Gen X take the reins of power.
In his Martin Luther King, Jr. Day speech, Obama said:
And that is what is at stake in the great political debate we are having today. The changes that are needed are not just a matter of tinkering at the edges, and they will not come if politicians simply tell us what we want to hear. All of us will be called upon to make some sacrifice. None of us will be exempt from responsibility.
By articulating the depth of the challenges ahead, Obama has unleashed the energy of the younger "Millennials," for whom civic engagement is much more important than for any other generation since the G.I.'s of World War II.
Second, Obama has frequently spoken to issues many futurists have suggested will become dominant themes of the 21st century, such as holistic problem-solving, a collective rather than self-centered disposition, and renewed interest in the Common Good. The emergence of a collective and holistic view of the world, of which Obama's election may be more evidence than cause, would initiate a profound reorganization of our economy around new priorities and values.
Regardless of what specific values emerge during the next four years or beyond, it is clear that the U.S. is ready for a new approach to the future that envisions and creates the type of world we would like to give to our children. The crises we face in the economy, health care, and the environment reach down to the foundations of our worldview and the lifestyle it suggests. Obama's embrace of foresight as a means to tackle these crises suggests that - by envisioning the future we prefer - we will have a better chance to create it.
The Democratic Party described the presidential election of 2008 as a choice between the past and the future, and at least generationally, that is true. More significantly, however, the election of Obama suggests a marked change in the way our government and society will think about the future.
Commenting on the Russia-Georgia conflict during the October 7th "town hall" debate with John McCain, President-elect Obama said, "The other thing we have to do, though, is we've got to see around the corners. We've got to anticipate some of these problems ahead of time...We haven't been doing enough of that."
Futurists see around the corners by trying to anticipate major shifts or conflicts ahead of time.
As a new administration comes into office under President Obama, there is tremendous opportunity to return active foresight to the top levels of government.
During the 1970's, many foresight programs existed at various levels of government. Examples include Congress' Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) and Congressional Clearinghouse on the Future as well as several projects in "anticipatory democracy," such as Gov. Jimmy Carter's "Goals for Georgia" and Gov. Dan Evans' "Alternatives for Washington."
In 1974, the House Select Committee on Committees stipulated that each standing committee "shall review and study on a continuing basis undertake futures research and forecasting on matters within its jurisdiction," a rarely observed requirement that remains on the books to this day.An Obama administration is likely to revive this tradition of government foresight. Several members of Obama's team, including Daniel Kammen, an energy and public policy professor at the University of California (Berkley), are long-range thinkers with experience with futures work or with long-term strategy projects. The transition team has also expressed interest in several projects focused on long-term futures, including the Project for National Security Reform.
In fact, the election of Obama and the re-emergence of a general interest in foresight are things a futurist might have foreseen, even in early 2007 when pundits were predicting a grueling death-match between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani. First, the passing of the leadership torch from the Boomers to Generation X has profound implications, freeing Boomers to play a visionary elder role while the more pragmatic crisis-responders of Gen X take the reins of power.
In his Martin Luther King, Jr. Day speech, Obama said:
And that is what is at stake in the great political debate we are having today. The changes that are needed are not just a matter of tinkering at the edges, and they will not come if politicians simply tell us what we want to hear. All of us will be called upon to make some sacrifice. None of us will be exempt from responsibility.
By articulating the depth of the challenges ahead, Obama has unleashed the energy of the younger "Millennials," for whom civic engagement is much more important than for any other generation since the G.I.'s of World War II.
Second, Obama has frequently spoken to issues many futurists have suggested will become dominant themes of the 21st century, such as holistic problem-solving, a collective rather than self-centered disposition, and renewed interest in the Common Good. The emergence of a collective and holistic view of the world, of which Obama's election may be more evidence than cause, would initiate a profound reorganization of our economy around new priorities and values.
Regardless of what specific values emerge during the next four years or beyond, it is clear that the U.S. is ready for a new approach to the future that envisions and creates the type of world we would like to give to our children. The crises we face in the economy, health care, and the environment reach down to the foundations of our worldview and the lifestyle it suggests. Obama's embrace of foresight as a means to tackle these crises suggests that - by envisioning the future we prefer - we will have a better chance to create it.
No future for the human race!
Humans have always been fascinated by the idea of space travel. Some even believe that colonizing new planets is man’s best hope for the future. The popular idea is that we’ll eventually need some fresh, unexploited new worlds to inhabit.
Professor Stephen Hawking, celebrated expert on the cosmological theories of gravity and black holes, believes that traveling into space is the only way humans will be able to survive in the long-term. He has said, "Life on Earth is at the ever-increasing risk of being wiped out by a disaster such as sudden global warming, nuclear war, a genetically engineered virus or other dangers ... I think the human race has no future if it doesn't go into space." Another of his famous quotes reiterates his position that we need to get off the planet relatively soon. "I don't think the human race will survive the next 1,000 years unless we spread into space."
Professor Stephen Hawking, celebrated expert on the cosmological theories of gravity and black holes, believes that traveling into space is the only way humans will be able to survive in the long-term. He has said, "Life on Earth is at the ever-increasing risk of being wiped out by a disaster such as sudden global warming, nuclear war, a genetically engineered virus or other dangers ... I think the human race has no future if it doesn't go into space." Another of his famous quotes reiterates his position that we need to get off the planet relatively soon. "I don't think the human race will survive the next 1,000 years unless we spread into space."
BUYology...says Martin Lindstrom!
The forthcoming book Buyology, The Truth and Lies About Why We Buy by Lindstrom will be published by Random House Doubleday, on October 20th, this year.
The book is based on the largest neuromarketing study ever conducted in the world. A 7 million study which has gone to explore the truth and lies about why we buy. It contains some ground breaking findings, so ground breaking that CBS/60 Minutes will run a special on the book October 19th this year. The same will happen on The Today Show on October 20th.
Buyology, The Truth and Lies About Why We Buy. And we ask: are you ready for the revolution?
The book is based on the largest neuromarketing study ever conducted in the world. A 7 million study which has gone to explore the truth and lies about why we buy. It contains some ground breaking findings, so ground breaking that CBS/60 Minutes will run a special on the book October 19th this year. The same will happen on The Today Show on October 20th.
Buyology, The Truth and Lies About Why We Buy. And we ask: are you ready for the revolution?
PREDICTING FUTURE HAPPINESS
Some people are naturally optimistic or pessimistic, but how accuratelythey predict the level of satisfaction they may attain in the future depends on a variety of factors, according to research published in PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE.In a study led by Brandeis University psychologist Margie Lachman, subjects were surveyed over a nine-year period. In the first survey, in1995-1996, participants between the ages of 24 and 74 rated their satisfaction with life now, with life 10 years earlier, and with howlife may be in another 10 years. They were asked the same questions again in 2004.
Lachman and colleagues discovered that there are age-related differences in how individuals view both the past and the future; thoseage 65 and older rated the past and present equally satisfying but predicted that the future would be less satisfying. Those under age 65 were more optimistic about the future and believed they would be moresatisfied a decade hence.
"These more negative expectations from older adults may be their way ofbracing for an uncertain future, a perspective that can serve aprotective function in the face of losses and that can have positive consequences if life circunstances turn out to be better than expected," says Lachman.
SOURCE: "Realism and Illusion in Americans' Temporal Views of TheirLife Satisfaction," PSYCHOLOGICAL SICENCE (September 2008)www.psychologicalscience.org
GAMING FOR FORECASTERS
A new research platform for collaboratively imagining futures scenarios through games has been launched by the Institute for the Future, an independent nonprofit research organization based in Palo Alto,California.
The first game to be launched in the new Massively MultiplayerForecasting platform is the Superstruct Game, which asks players to consider solutions to superthreats such as global food shortages, masshomelessness, and pandemics.
Other games will include earthquakes simulations and care giving. The goals of the games are to "addressreal-world problems by harnessing the wisdom of crowds," according tothe Institute.
Says IFTF's Howard Rheingold. "Massively multiplayer forecasting gamesis not just a new tool for forecasting, but also a continuation of IFTF's efforts to make forecasting more public, more inclusive, and more experiential."
Among the IFTF researchers involved in developing the Superstruct Game is Jamais Cascio, whose article on scenarios for the Singularity will appear in the November-December 2008 issue of THE FUTURIST.
SOURCES: Institute for the Future, www.iftf.org
Workshops and Seminars
Foresight is an inevitable instrument of modern management to make decisions and improve success in business. In an age of hyperchange and hypercompetition, developing foresight and seeing our way to the future is harder. But you can now learn more about foresight techniques (such as trend analysis, scanning, scenario analysis, and more) with our help. We offer a variety of lectures, seminars, workshops and courses for individuals, companies and other organizations to understand megatrends and discover the future concerning economic and business development and global trends of general interest.Workshops, Lectures & Seminars:
- What is Futuring?
- Visions for the 21st century
- How to design future maps
- Foresight, innovation and strategy
- How to think creatively in turbulent times?
- The Exploration of Business Today and Tomorrow
- The Future of Globalization
- The Future of Education
- Prepare your workforce for the future challenges
- Business Excellence in the Knowledge Economy
- New markets, new business
- New world, new values
- New business, new jobs
- New mind for the future challenges
- The end of an Era: the future of management
- Smart decisions in hypercompetitive markets
- Introduction to Neuroeconomy
- What is Neuromarketing?
- What is Neuroadvertising?
Email us to
office@futureintelligencemanagement.co.uk
Scientists Create Artifical Brain
A network of artificial nerves is evolving right now in a Swiss supercomputer. This bizarre creation is capable of simulating a natural brain, cell-for-cell. The Swiss scientists, who created what they have dubbed "Blue Brain", believe it will soon offer a better understanding of human consciousness. This is no sci-fi flick; it’s an actual ‘computer brain’ that may eventually have the ability to think for itself. Exciting? Scary? It could be a little of both.
The designers say that "Blue Brain" was willful and unpredictable from day one. When it was first fed electrical impulses, strange patterns began to appear with lightning-like flashes produced by ‘cells’ that the scientists recognized from living human and animal processes. Neurons started interacting with one another until they were firing in rhythm. "It happened entirely on its own," says biologist Henry Markram, the project's director. "Spontaneously."
The project essentially has its own factory to produce artificial brains. Their computers can clone nerve cells quickly. The system allows for the production of whole series of neurons of all different types. Because in natural brains, no two cells are exactly identical, the scientists make sure the artificial cells used for the project are also random and unique.
Does this ‘Brain’ have a soul? If it does, it is likely to be the shadowy remnants of thousands of sacrificed rats whose brains were almost literally fed into the computer. After opening the rat skulls and slicing their brains into thin sections, the scientists kept the slices alive. Tiny sensors picked up individual neurons, recorded how the cells fired off neurons and the adjacent cells’ responses. In this way the scientists were able to collect entire repertoires of actual rat behavior- basically how a rat would respond in different situations throughout a rat's life.
The researchers say it wouldn't present much of a technological challenge to bring the brain to life. "We could simply connect a robot to the brain model," says Markram. "Then we could see how it reacts to real environments."
Are rats capable of revenge? What I’m wondering is what this brain would do to those researchers if it was attached to a giant metallic rat body and equipped with teeth and claws…now there’s a good sci-fi movie.
Although over ten thousand artificial nerve cells have already been woven in, the researchers plan to increase the number to one million by next year. The researchers are already working with IBM experts on plans for a computer that would operate at inconceivable speeds – something fast enough to simulate the human brain. The project is scheduled to last beyond 2015, at which point the team hopes to be ready for their primary goal: a computer model of an entire human brain. So, who’s brain will they be slicing up for that one? Lets hope it’s not a psychopath.
Story Link
Read more...
Neurotheology -Is God Hardwired into the Human Brain?
Mysteries of the Human Brain
Origin of Religion -Human Brain as "Belief Engine"
The Biology of Awe
Big Brain & the Pursuit of Happiness
The designers say that "Blue Brain" was willful and unpredictable from day one. When it was first fed electrical impulses, strange patterns began to appear with lightning-like flashes produced by ‘cells’ that the scientists recognized from living human and animal processes. Neurons started interacting with one another until they were firing in rhythm. "It happened entirely on its own," says biologist Henry Markram, the project's director. "Spontaneously."
The project essentially has its own factory to produce artificial brains. Their computers can clone nerve cells quickly. The system allows for the production of whole series of neurons of all different types. Because in natural brains, no two cells are exactly identical, the scientists make sure the artificial cells used for the project are also random and unique.
Does this ‘Brain’ have a soul? If it does, it is likely to be the shadowy remnants of thousands of sacrificed rats whose brains were almost literally fed into the computer. After opening the rat skulls and slicing their brains into thin sections, the scientists kept the slices alive. Tiny sensors picked up individual neurons, recorded how the cells fired off neurons and the adjacent cells’ responses. In this way the scientists were able to collect entire repertoires of actual rat behavior- basically how a rat would respond in different situations throughout a rat's life.
The researchers say it wouldn't present much of a technological challenge to bring the brain to life. "We could simply connect a robot to the brain model," says Markram. "Then we could see how it reacts to real environments."
Are rats capable of revenge? What I’m wondering is what this brain would do to those researchers if it was attached to a giant metallic rat body and equipped with teeth and claws…now there’s a good sci-fi movie.
Although over ten thousand artificial nerve cells have already been woven in, the researchers plan to increase the number to one million by next year. The researchers are already working with IBM experts on plans for a computer that would operate at inconceivable speeds – something fast enough to simulate the human brain. The project is scheduled to last beyond 2015, at which point the team hopes to be ready for their primary goal: a computer model of an entire human brain. So, who’s brain will they be slicing up for that one? Lets hope it’s not a psychopath.
Story Link
Read more...
Neurotheology -Is God Hardwired into the Human Brain?
Mysteries of the Human Brain
Origin of Religion -Human Brain as "Belief Engine"
The Biology of Awe
Big Brain & the Pursuit of Happiness
18 Billion Suns!
Scientists have determined the mass of the largest things that could possibly exist in our universe. New results have placed an upper limit on the current size of black holes - and at fifty billion suns it's pretty damn big. That's a hundred thousand tredagrams, and you'll never get the chance to use that word in relation to anything else.Black holes are regions of space where matter is so dense that regular physics just breaks down. You might think physical laws are immutable - you can't get out of gravitational attraction the same way you can get out of a speeding ticket - but beyond a certain level laws which determine how matter is regulated are simply overloaded and material is crushed down into something that's less an object and more a region of altered space.
While there's theoretically no upper limit on how big a black hole can be, there are hard limits on how big they could have become by now. The universe has only existed for a finite amount of time, and even the most voracious black hole can only suck in matter at a certain rate. The bigger the black hole, the bigger the gravitational field and the faster it can pull in matter - but that same huge gravitational gradient means that the same matter can release huge amounts of radiation as it falls, blasting other matter further away.
Based on this self-regulating maximum rate, scientists at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Massachusetts, and the European Southern Observatory, Chile, have calculated an upper limit for these mega-mammoth masses. Fifty billion suns, that's 100 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 kg, otherwise known as "ridiculously stupidly big" and triple the size of the largest observed black hole, OJ 287.
There are potential problems with this calculation. Based as it is on the radiation outflow from a black hole, new discoveries could change this estimate - though only from "insanely massive" to "ridiculously ginormous."
Luke McKinney.
Do you like it? Read more...
18 Billion Suns -A Galaxy Classic: Biggest Black Hole in Universe Discovered—and it’s BIGNeutron Stars: New Discovery Proves Einstein's Space-Time PredictionsMystery Neutron Star DiscoveredAndromeda Galaxy & Its Mystery Core: Destined to Merge With the Milky Way?Neutron Stars & The Physics of Star TrekNew, Revised Hitchhiker's Guide to the GalaxyBlack Holes Key to Mapping the Evolution of the UniverseNASA Finds Bizarre Planet-Mass Orbiting Neutron Star in the Constellation SagittariusThe Milky Way's X Factor: Rogue Planet Devouring Black Holes
Sources:
Upper limit on black hole size The biggest black hole yet seen
Neurotechology
>> The Future of Computer-assisted Cognitive Therapy
Cognitive therapy is one of the most researched types of brain training, especially in dealing with depression and anxiety. Why don't more people benefit today from it? The lack of a scalable distribution model may perhaps explain that. We predict that technology will help complement the role of therapists, helping more people better cope with change, life, anxiety, and a range of cognitive and emotional challenges. Without any stigma. Just as naturally as one trains abdominal muscles today.
Cognitive therapy is one of the most researched types of brain training, especially in dealing with depression and anxiety. Why don't more people benefit today from it? The lack of a scalable distribution model may perhaps explain that. We predict that technology will help complement the role of therapists, helping more people better cope with change, life, anxiety, and a range of cognitive and emotional challenges. Without any stigma. Just as naturally as one trains abdominal muscles today.
South Korea´s new cultural tower
The concept for Cheongna City Tower in Incheon, South Korea, differs from other highrises in both purpose and message. Designed to emanate a sense of hope throughout the world, GDS Architects’ ‘invisible’ 446m tower design (aka Tower Infinity) illustrates a humbleness and innocence from which a cultural centre, observation deck and other community facilities will function.GDS beat 146 entries from 46 countries to win Korea Land Corporation’s design competition in March with their crystalline shard design that they gave the slogan ‘In the absence of matter is the presence of hope’. Read more...
To archaeologists and those who like their history, a ziggurat is a terraced pyramid (image), native to the ancient Mesopotamian valley and Iran. Used as shrines and for escaping from rising flood waters, the ziggurats have revealed much about the culture surrounding their construction.However, the ziggurat is about to enter the common vernacular, hopefully, as something a little more modern.
Under the watchful eye of Dubai-based Timelinks, an environmental design company, a new project entitled Ziggurat is being proposed as a sustainable city of the future. Able to hold up to a million people, but taking up only 2.3 square kilometers – a tenth of the original land needed for such a group of people – the designers believe that the power of nature will support the Ziggurat. Read more...
Hector Ruiz: On connecting the world!
Why you should listen to him:
Hector Ruiz is executive chairman of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Born in Piedras Negras, Mexico, Dr. Ruiz is passionate about the role of technology in education and empowering the underprivileged. At the 2004 World Economic Forum in Davos, he announced AMD's 50x15 Initiative, a commitment to provide 50 percent of the world's population with basic Internet access by the year 2015.
Ruiz contends that his company's 50x15 initiative is "not only possible; it is perhaps the most important transformational event we will experience in our lifetime."
"Technology is only as powerful as it is accessible. The IT industry has nearly unlimited potential to educate the world by connecting the world."
Charles Leadbeater on innovation
A researcher at the London think tank Demos, Charles Leadbeater was early to notice the rise of "amateur innovation" -- great ideas from outside the traditional walls, from people who suddenly have the tools to collaborate, innovate and make their expertise known.
The World's 1st Blood Factory
This isn't a scene from "Hellraiser XXV: Dear God The Franchise Is Still Going", but a major breakthrough in medical technology. With the ability to grow blood in bulk we might never have to sit through another "Please please give blood" ad ever again.A combination of commercial and academic researchers have produced ahundred billion blood cells by emulating the blood production system inhuman bone marrow. While that's only 1% of the blood in a human body,once... >> Read more...
The Foundation For The Future
For more than a decade the Foundation For the Future, in Washington (USA), has pursued its mission to increase and diffuse knowledge concerning the long-term future of humanity.
The Foundation conducts a broad range of programs and activities to promote an understanding of the factors in the social, genetic, biological, medical, psychological, physiological, cultural, technological, and ecological fields that may have an impact on human life during coming millennia.
To fulfill its mandate, the Foundation For the Future:
• Promotes public awareness of and education in futures issues.
• Convenes seminars, workshops, and symposia that focus on issues associated with the long-term future of humanity.
• Publishes scholarly works that address issues concerning the factors that will affect the future quality of human life.
• Awards the annual Kistler Prize (cash and gold medallion), the Walter P. Kistler Book Award (cash and certificate), the Walter P. Kistler Science Teacher of the Year Award (cash and certificate), and the Walter P. Kistler Science Documentary Film Award (cash and certificate).
• Provides financial support to scholars’ research through Research Grant Awards.
• Facilitates a Student Education Program that encourages young scholars to think about the future.
The Foundation’s benefactor and founding President is Walter Kistler. A Board of Trustees oversees all Foundation activities and is supported by an Executive Director, two Deputy Directors, and a small administrative staff.
The Foundation has assembled teams of prominent scholars and humanists to serve on the Foundation’s Board of Advisors and on the Kistler Prize Advisory Panel.
The Foundation is sustained in perpetuity by a permanent endowment.
To fulfill its mandate, the Foundation For the Future:
• Promotes public awareness of and education in futures issues.
• Convenes seminars, workshops, and symposia that focus on issues associated with the long-term future of humanity.
• Publishes scholarly works that address issues concerning the factors that will affect the future quality of human life.
• Awards the annual Kistler Prize (cash and gold medallion), the Walter P. Kistler Book Award (cash and certificate), the Walter P. Kistler Science Teacher of the Year Award (cash and certificate), and the Walter P. Kistler Science Documentary Film Award (cash and certificate).
• Provides financial support to scholars’ research through Research Grant Awards.
• Facilitates a Student Education Program that encourages young scholars to think about the future.
The Foundation’s benefactor and founding President is Walter Kistler. A Board of Trustees oversees all Foundation activities and is supported by an Executive Director, two Deputy Directors, and a small administrative staff.
The Foundation has assembled teams of prominent scholars and humanists to serve on the Foundation’s Board of Advisors and on the Kistler Prize Advisory Panel.
The Foundation is sustained in perpetuity by a permanent endowment.
The Purpose
The Kistler Prize was created out of concern for the long-term future of humanity.
Leaders of human societies – constrained by relatively short-term problems related to economics, education, poverty, trade, and international affairs – often show little interest in addressing issues that have consequences for the long-term future of humanity. This attitude has been prevalent from the beginning of the industrial revolution and continues today. At the same time, because of wondrous technological achievements and political ideologies, we have affected reproduction, resulting in higher growth rates of population. The rules of Darwinian selection are being changed, thus affecting the evolutionary processes that have determined the human genome.
Our goal is to raise concerns about the future, to end the “head in the sand” attitude that seems to prevail in human organizations, private and public. Unbiased research into the connection between the human genome and human society, culture, and tradition is urgently needed. The role of nature and of nurture in the development of a human being needs to be better understood.
The purpose of the Kistler Prize is to acknowledge and encourage scientific research that demonstrates the connections between current genetic trends in human populations and the long-term impact on the viability and survivability of the human race, society, and culture.
The Award
The Kistler Prize consists of a US$100,000 cash award and a specially designed 180-gram gold medallion seated in a leaded glass sculpture. It is named for Walter P. Kistler, originator of the award program and benefactor of the Foundation For the Future.
The Prize is awarded annually to a scientist or research institution that has, with courage and wisdom, pursued the truth and made original, substantive, and innovative contributions in the study of the connections between the human genome and human society.
Please go to the NOMINATION PROCESS page for eligibility requirements.
The Kistler Prize was created out of concern for the long-term future of humanity.
Leaders of human societies – constrained by relatively short-term problems related to economics, education, poverty, trade, and international affairs – often show little interest in addressing issues that have consequences for the long-term future of humanity. This attitude has been prevalent from the beginning of the industrial revolution and continues today. At the same time, because of wondrous technological achievements and political ideologies, we have affected reproduction, resulting in higher growth rates of population. The rules of Darwinian selection are being changed, thus affecting the evolutionary processes that have determined the human genome.
Our goal is to raise concerns about the future, to end the “head in the sand” attitude that seems to prevail in human organizations, private and public. Unbiased research into the connection between the human genome and human society, culture, and tradition is urgently needed. The role of nature and of nurture in the development of a human being needs to be better understood.
The purpose of the Kistler Prize is to acknowledge and encourage scientific research that demonstrates the connections between current genetic trends in human populations and the long-term impact on the viability and survivability of the human race, society, and culture.
The Award
The Kistler Prize consists of a US$100,000 cash award and a specially designed 180-gram gold medallion seated in a leaded glass sculpture. It is named for Walter P. Kistler, originator of the award program and benefactor of the Foundation For the Future.
The Prize is awarded annually to a scientist or research institution that has, with courage and wisdom, pursued the truth and made original, substantive, and innovative contributions in the study of the connections between the human genome and human society.
Please go to the NOMINATION PROCESS page for eligibility requirements.
How to manage what we don´t know!
Risk management is a core strategic discipline! There are two categories of risks in business decisions: knowable (and therefore learnable) and unknowable.Learnable risks are the ones we could make less uncertain if we had the time and resources to learn more about them.
The crucial distinction between learnable and random risks is not about how to manage them. In fact, there is always something to learn about managing every risk. We can improve response times, train people to recognize signs that something has gone wrong and even control the size of our exposure. Whether a particular risk is learnable or random thus has little to do with our ability to manage it.
Random risks would be the ones where nothing we could learn would reduce the uncertainty behind them.
Scoring your risk intelligence:
Rule 1. Recognize which risks are learnable.
Rule 2. Identify risks you can learn about fastest.
Biblio: Apgar, David, Risk Intelligence, Harvard Business School Press, 2006
Technology Forecasting Mini Seminar
TFI's one-day Technology Forecasting Mini Seminar™, Broadband Futures Seminar, and Technology Futures Asset Valuation Conference will be held consecutively in early 2009. To be updated on seminar dates, please click here. Table of Contents
Future Memory: is it possible?
Some researchers believe that our brain/mind system can live the future before it occurs! They propose a new category be established under mods of futuristic awareness. Author P.M.H. Atwater describe this category as follows:
Future Memory >> to prelive in advance (subjective/sensory-rich). The ability to fully live a given event or sequence of events in subjective reality before living that same episode in objective reality. This is usually, but not always, forgotten by the individual after it happens, only to be remembered later when some "signal" triggers memory.
For them, th
e present moment can be past tense! It is more a process of memory than anything psychic. They actually remember the future, just as they remember the past, even though that memory is not based on previous "constructions" (the brain´s ability to adapt actualities to accommodate whatever is precedent). They do not predict. They are just people who now live in a different reality system than before, where the understanding of time and space has shifted from the norm. Other researchers often misinerpret and misunderstand this phenomenon, thinking it to be something it is not.
For them, th
e present moment can be past tense! It is more a process of memory than anything psychic. They actually remember the future, just as they remember the past, even though that memory is not based on previous "constructions" (the brain´s ability to adapt actualities to accommodate whatever is precedent). They do not predict. They are just people who now live in a different reality system than before, where the understanding of time and space has shifted from the norm. Other researchers often misinerpret and misunderstand this phenomenon, thinking it to be something it is not.In business we use forecasting. It is to predict in advance (objective/logical). Depends on mathematical projections made from detailed facts and figures to provide information. But some futurists use another kind of phenomenon: precognition. It means to know in advance (subjective/feeling). Is the act of knowing or feeling the future before it happens; occasionally called "sensing". Refers too advance knowledge suddenly known without precursory promptings or impressionistic stimulus of any kind.
10 business facing extinction in 10 years!
Determining which industries aren't long for this world may seem easy enough. But some types of businesses, such as telemarketing, are surprisingly hard to kill. And then again, other industries, probably the ones you're sad to see go, can't find a way to survive.
Read >> Full story
Read >> Full story
Future TOP 10 HOT CAREERS IN 2012
Space Tourism to Genetic Counseling
In our information-rich society there is an ever increasing demand for workers in the fields of computers, health care, science and space technology—much of it driven by the demands of the retiring baby boomers. If you like to plan ahead, here is sampling of some of the jobs that will be hot in the next several years and beyond.
Organic food Industry
By 2010, organic food and beverage will represent about 10 percent of the total market — a tenfold increase from 1998. Bob Scowcroft, executive director of the Organic Farming Research Foundation says the industry will soon need more organic food producers, certification experts, retailers and scientists as organic becomes mainstream.
Qualifications: Organic food expertise in farming, business or science.
Salary range: $50,000 to $80,000
Computational Biology
There is a growing need to combine computer science, biology and math to make sense of research data in massive quantities, says Leroy Hood, co-founder of the Institute for Systems Biology. This field may eventually allow physicians to test for a patient’s unique genetic markers and tailor the best treatments and medicine for that patient.
Qualifications: A bachelor’s degree or higher in bioinformatics, computer science, mathematics, biology or related area; strong software engineering skills.
Salary: $106,000 to $118,000
Parallel Programming
By 2012, computers will jump from core duo processors to multi-core processors — as many as 80 processors per machine — packing supercomputer power into desktops, said Jerry Bautista, co-director of Intel’s Tera-scale Computing Research Program. The different cores can work in parallel, like a symphony’s instruments, cracking complex problems, building lifelike models and anticipating its users’ needs, all at breathtaking speed. Parallel programmers who can keep the ‘symphony’ in tune will be in high demand.
Qualifications: A bachelor's degree or higher in computer science or relevant field, non-linear thinking and creativity.
Salary: $79,000 to $88,000
Data Technology
In 2012, radio frequency ID chips, video cameras, computers and sensors will generate incredible amounts of information. Data technologists build structures—real and virtual—that turn the pile of data into something meaningful and beautiful, says Eric Rodenbeck, founder and creative director at Stamen Design.
Qualifications: Experience in virtual environments, imaging and visualization, technical skills, willingness to learn new tools and imagination.
Salary: $90,000 to $102,000
Simulation Engineering
By 2012, an increase in processing power and rich data will make simulations more realistic, and user-friendly. Simulation engineers will be working on bringing us closer to “Star Trek’s” Holodecks—the ultimate total immersion simulation. Simulations will be in every industry and every engineering field, said Frieder Seible, dean of the Jacobs School of Engineering at the University of California-San Diego. Businesses will test products and product releases and forecast markets. Engineers will test designs, from bridges to skyscrapers, by examining lifesize projections. Historians will be able to recreate the past, like ancient Rome or the moon landing.
Qualifications: A bachelor’s degree in computer science, engineering, math, physics or relevant field; analytical skills; and interpersonal skills.
Salary: $91,000 to $114,000
Boomer Caregiving
This job may not sound as exciting as some, but it will certainly be in demand. Most retiring baby boomers want to remain in their homes for the rest of their lives, accord to the AARP. To accomplish that, they will need help with errands, chores and home care. From 2004 to 2014, home health aide will be the fastest-growing career, with 56 percent growth and about 350,000 new openings, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.
Qualifications: Short-term training, people skills and compassion.
Salary: $23,000 to $25,000 (sometimes includes free housing in the clients’ home and other perks)
Genetic Counseling
Doctors will be able to test for dozens of genetic markers and predict when a person will likely experience a genetically based condition. With more tests and treatments available, genetic counselors will be needed to help individuals and families make decisions about genetic technologies as it applies to science and personal beliefs. Today, about 2,000 counselors are recognized by the American Board of Genetic Counseling.
Qualifications: A master’s degree in genetic counseling, critical thinking skills and communication skills.
Salary: $58,000 to $64,000
Brain Analysts
Using increasingly advanced brain imaging tools, neuroscientists will determine how people feel and react or what they’re capable of, said Terry Sejnowski, a professor at the Salk Institute of Biological Studies and head of its Computational Neurobiology Laboratory. People could detect deception, diagnose mental illness, identify intellectual strengths and collect accurate market research and even get help picking careers best suited to their brains.
Qualifications: A bachelor’s degree in neuroscience, experience in health care and people skills.
Salary: $180,000 to $229,000
Space Tourism
While this one may sound far-fetched, the entire industry of space tourism is poised to “take off”. There are already 200 reservations for space flights. Space Adventures plans on hiring about 10 space tour guides to start, said spokeswoman Stacey Tearne said. The world’s first space hotel is also set to open in 2012, which could be the beginning of a whole new sector of jobs which will require the merging of space smarts with great hospitality.
Qualifications: A bachelor’s degree in aerospace engineering or a relevant field, a love for sky-high adventure and a strong belief in the benefits of human space exploration.
Salary range: $80,000 to $90,000
Roboticists
In a way, robots have already taken over the world. The components, processors and sensors for robots are getting cheaper every quarter, said Paul Saffo, a technology forecaster. Hundreds of new applications for robots are already being developed. Robots already work in research laboratories, factories, hospitals, daycares and housekeeping, and the trend is only expected to grow as the field progresses.
Qualifications: Experience in computer science, engineering and electronics and a love of tinkering.
Salary: $80,000 to $90,000
Posted by Rebecca Sato (Original source: The Daily Galaxy)
Link 1 Link 2
In our information-rich society there is an ever increasing demand for workers in the fields of computers, health care, science and space technology—much of it driven by the demands of the retiring baby boomers. If you like to plan ahead, here is sampling of some of the jobs that will be hot in the next several years and beyond.
Organic food Industry
By 2010, organic food and beverage will represent about 10 percent of the total market — a tenfold increase from 1998. Bob Scowcroft, executive director of the Organic Farming Research Foundation says the industry will soon need more organic food producers, certification experts, retailers and scientists as organic becomes mainstream.
Qualifications: Organic food expertise in farming, business or science.
Salary range: $50,000 to $80,000
Computational Biology
There is a growing need to combine computer science, biology and math to make sense of research data in massive quantities, says Leroy Hood, co-founder of the Institute for Systems Biology. This field may eventually allow physicians to test for a patient’s unique genetic markers and tailor the best treatments and medicine for that patient.
Qualifications: A bachelor’s degree or higher in bioinformatics, computer science, mathematics, biology or related area; strong software engineering skills.
Salary: $106,000 to $118,000
Parallel Programming
By 2012, computers will jump from core duo processors to multi-core processors — as many as 80 processors per machine — packing supercomputer power into desktops, said Jerry Bautista, co-director of Intel’s Tera-scale Computing Research Program. The different cores can work in parallel, like a symphony’s instruments, cracking complex problems, building lifelike models and anticipating its users’ needs, all at breathtaking speed. Parallel programmers who can keep the ‘symphony’ in tune will be in high demand.
Qualifications: A bachelor's degree or higher in computer science or relevant field, non-linear thinking and creativity.
Salary: $79,000 to $88,000
Data Technology
In 2012, radio frequency ID chips, video cameras, computers and sensors will generate incredible amounts of information. Data technologists build structures—real and virtual—that turn the pile of data into something meaningful and beautiful, says Eric Rodenbeck, founder and creative director at Stamen Design.
Qualifications: Experience in virtual environments, imaging and visualization, technical skills, willingness to learn new tools and imagination.
Salary: $90,000 to $102,000
Simulation Engineering
By 2012, an increase in processing power and rich data will make simulations more realistic, and user-friendly. Simulation engineers will be working on bringing us closer to “Star Trek’s” Holodecks—the ultimate total immersion simulation. Simulations will be in every industry and every engineering field, said Frieder Seible, dean of the Jacobs School of Engineering at the University of California-San Diego. Businesses will test products and product releases and forecast markets. Engineers will test designs, from bridges to skyscrapers, by examining lifesize projections. Historians will be able to recreate the past, like ancient Rome or the moon landing.
Qualifications: A bachelor’s degree in computer science, engineering, math, physics or relevant field; analytical skills; and interpersonal skills.
Salary: $91,000 to $114,000
Boomer Caregiving
This job may not sound as exciting as some, but it will certainly be in demand. Most retiring baby boomers want to remain in their homes for the rest of their lives, accord to the AARP. To accomplish that, they will need help with errands, chores and home care. From 2004 to 2014, home health aide will be the fastest-growing career, with 56 percent growth and about 350,000 new openings, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.
Qualifications: Short-term training, people skills and compassion.
Salary: $23,000 to $25,000 (sometimes includes free housing in the clients’ home and other perks)
Genetic Counseling
Doctors will be able to test for dozens of genetic markers and predict when a person will likely experience a genetically based condition. With more tests and treatments available, genetic counselors will be needed to help individuals and families make decisions about genetic technologies as it applies to science and personal beliefs. Today, about 2,000 counselors are recognized by the American Board of Genetic Counseling.
Qualifications: A master’s degree in genetic counseling, critical thinking skills and communication skills.
Salary: $58,000 to $64,000
Brain Analysts
Using increasingly advanced brain imaging tools, neuroscientists will determine how people feel and react or what they’re capable of, said Terry Sejnowski, a professor at the Salk Institute of Biological Studies and head of its Computational Neurobiology Laboratory. People could detect deception, diagnose mental illness, identify intellectual strengths and collect accurate market research and even get help picking careers best suited to their brains.
Qualifications: A bachelor’s degree in neuroscience, experience in health care and people skills.
Salary: $180,000 to $229,000
Space Tourism
While this one may sound far-fetched, the entire industry of space tourism is poised to “take off”. There are already 200 reservations for space flights. Space Adventures plans on hiring about 10 space tour guides to start, said spokeswoman Stacey Tearne said. The world’s first space hotel is also set to open in 2012, which could be the beginning of a whole new sector of jobs which will require the merging of space smarts with great hospitality.
Qualifications: A bachelor’s degree in aerospace engineering or a relevant field, a love for sky-high adventure and a strong belief in the benefits of human space exploration.
Salary range: $80,000 to $90,000
Roboticists
In a way, robots have already taken over the world. The components, processors and sensors for robots are getting cheaper every quarter, said Paul Saffo, a technology forecaster. Hundreds of new applications for robots are already being developed. Robots already work in research laboratories, factories, hospitals, daycares and housekeeping, and the trend is only expected to grow as the field progresses.
Qualifications: Experience in computer science, engineering and electronics and a love of tinkering.
Salary: $80,000 to $90,000
Posted by Rebecca Sato (Original source: The Daily Galaxy)
Link 1 Link 2
The road to...
These are a few forecasts from members of The World Future Society:
Forecast 1:The world will have a billion millionaires by 2025. Globalization and technological innovation are driving this increased prosperity. But challenges to prosperity will also become more acute, such as water shortages that will affect two-thirds of world population by 2025.
Forecast 2:
Fashion will go wired as technologies and tastes converge to revolutionize the textile industry. Researchers in smart fabrics and intelligent textiles (SFIT) are working with the fashion industry to bring us color-changing or perfume-emitting jeans, wristwatches that work as digital wallets, and running shoes like the Nike +iPod that watch where you're going (possibly allowing others to do the same). Powering these gizmos remains a key obstacle. But industry watchers estimate that a $400 million market for SFIT is already in place and predict that smart fabrics could revitalize the U.S. and European textile industry.
Forecast 3:
The threat of another cold war with China, Russia, or both could replace terrorism as the chief foreign-policy concern of the United States. Scenarios for what a war with China or Russia would look like make the clashes and wars in which the United States is now involved seem insignificant. The power of radical jihadists is trivial compared with Soviet missile capabilities, for instance. The focus of U.S. foreign policy should thus be on preventing an engagement among Great Powers.
Forecast 4:
Counterfeiting of currency will proliferate, driving the move toward a cashless society. Sophisticated new optical scanning technologies could, in the next five years, be a boon for currency counterfeiters, so societies are increasingly putting aside their privacy fears about going cashless. Meanwhile, cashless technologies are improving, making them far easier and safer to use.
Forecast 5:
The earth is on the verge of a significant extinction event. The twenty-first century could witness a biodiversity collapse 100 to 1,000 times greater than any previous extinction since the dawn of humanity, according to the World Resources Institute. Protecting biodiversity in a time of increased resource consumption, overpopulation, and environmental degradation will require continued sacrifice on the part of local, often impoverished communities. Experts contend that incorporating local communities' economic interests into conservation plans will be essential to species protection in the next century.
News from World Future Society
Check out the July-August issue of THE FUTURIST, on stands now! The World Future Society is a nonprofit, nonpartisan scientific and educational association of people interested in how social and technological developments are shaping the future. The Society was founded in 1966 and is chartered as a nonprofit educational and scientific organization in Washington, D.C., U.S.A.
The Society strives to serve as a neutral clearinghouse for ideas about the future. Ideas about the future include forecasts, recommendations, and alternative scenarios. These ideas help people to anticipate what may happen in the next 5, 10, or more years ahead. When people can visualize a better future, then they can begin to create it.
The Society strives to serve as a neutral clearinghouse for ideas about the future. Ideas about the future include forecasts, recommendations, and alternative scenarios. These ideas help people to anticipate what may happen in the next 5, 10, or more years ahead. When people can visualize a better future, then they can begin to create it.
THE EXTREME FUTURE: THE BOOK!
Dr James Canton, CEO of the Institute for Global Futures, makes predictions for the next four decades while counseling readers on how to appropriately prepare for anticipated changes, in an account that discusses large-scale events in such arenas as climate, energy, and terrorism.The Institute for Global Futures says:
"There is no book that brings together so well, the top trends you need to know about now. In one place, in a concise easy to read format that is visually entertaining, the reader can find essential information that is critical to their success and even future survival. The book is a briefing on the future that is simply and directly stated. It is MegaTrends for everyone". And
SciTech Book News:has written:
"Writing primarily for corporate executives, Canton (chairman and CEO of the Institute for Global Futures), a one-time student of futurist Alvin Toffler, predicts the top trends of the "extreme future," which is defined by speed, complexity, risk, change, and surprise. His predictions are presented in ten chapters that grapple with energy issues, the emerging innovation economy, the changing American workforce, longevity medicine technology, emerging science ("from teleportation to nanobiology to multiple universes"), security issues, economic and cultural globalization, climate change, the changing role of the individual, and Sino-American relations. "
The Extreme Future Table of Contents & Sample Chapters
Chapter 1 - Welcome to the Extreme Future Chapter 2 - Fueling the Future, pag.23 Chapter 3 - Finding Prosperity: The Innovation Economy Chapter 4 - Help Wanted: The Future of the Workforce Chapter 5 - Outliving the Future: Longevity Medicine, pag.117 Chapter 6 - Tomorrow's Climate Chapter 7 - Cultures in Collision: The Future of Globalization Chapter 8 - Securing the Future Chapter 9 - Weird Science: What's Next Chapter 10 - Invisible War: The Future of the Individual Chapter 11 - Dancing Dragon: The Future of China Chapter 12 - The Future of America and Democracy.
About the author:
Dr. James Canton is a renowned global futurist, social scientist, author, and sought-after business advisor. For the past twenty-five years, he has been insightfully forecasting the impact of future trends and innovations on business, customers and society.
Dr. Canton is Chairman and CEO of the Institute for Global Futures, an internationally-recognized San Francisco-based think tank he founded in 1990, to help clients better anticipate the future. Dr. Canton advises Fortune 1000 corporations and governments worldwide. Dr. Canton advises the National Science Foundation and is a Senior Fellow at the Kellogg Innovation Network at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management and sits on the Research Visionary Advisory Board for Motorola. Dr. Canton also sat on the Advisory Board of MIT’s Media Lab, Europe and advised the White House’s Office of Science and Technology.
For more details about the book, please read here:
>> The Extreme Future Press Release as Word Doc
>> Search inside this book (Amazon page!)
Instituto da Inteligência,2008
The Extreme Future ten trends
The following ten trends identify the strategic challenges that every person, organization and nation will be dealing with in the future.
The Extreme Future, based on Dr. Canton’s new book, is an emerging era of complex new changes and challenges; many we have never had to deal with before. Also, the combination of trends, from energy to innovation and population, will challenge leaders in new ways.
Best to prepare today to meet the challenges of this Extreme Future.
1. Fueling the Future - The energy crisis, the costs, the post-oil future, and the future of energy alternatives like hydrogen, hybrids, and biofuels will be an essential factor into every business decision. The critical role that energy will play in every aspect of our lives in the 21st century will shape business and society.
2. The Innovation Economy - The central driver of future commerce will be innovation industries. Investing today in fast moving patents, innovations, ideas, like the Four Power Tools of the future: nano-bio-neuro-info, and products will shape competitive advantage.
3. Talent War - Talented people are the key to business success. There will be more jobs than skilled people to fill them. Companies will compete for the growing shortage of skilled people. More incentives to keep and recruit the best people will emerge.
4. Longevity Medicine - Health care is being transformed by biotech and genomics. People will be living longer, healthier and more productive lives. The human enhancement marketplace, offering new organs, new memories, new limbs, new skin and new lives, will translate into the largest market of the future—even immortality, for some, will be possible.
5. Weird Science - Always-On wireless Internet, teleportation, smart materials, space tourism—Weird new science will change every aspect of our lives, culture and economy, leading to new jobs, new products and new options. Nations and businesses that invest in future science will profit in economic growth.
6. Securing the Future - A new risk landscape is emerging from war, to hackers, to terrorists, to mind control, which will pose new challenges for individuals, governments and business. The personal security market will be lucrative.
7. The Future of Globalization - The new realities of more open global trade will offer both risk and opportunity in the near future. The rise of China and India; the clash of different cultures and ideas. Free trade, open markets and improved quality of life will define the 21st century.
8. The Future of Climate Change - The environment is changing and we need to prepare for increased global warming, pollution, and threats to biodiversity that will present new business opportunities. At the same time, the Clean Tech market will offer business a large financial opportunity to clean up the planet.
9. The Future of the Individual - The near future will provide opportunities for personal wealth creation that will underlie all other trends. Individual invention and innovation will accelerate business success. We will also see a struggle to balance individual freedom, privacy and security.
10. The Future of America and China - How the destiny of these two great nations - from capitalism to democracy, to innovation and security - will shape the future.
The Extreme Future, based on Dr. Canton’s new book, is an emerging era of complex new changes and challenges; many we have never had to deal with before. Also, the combination of trends, from energy to innovation and population, will challenge leaders in new ways.
Best to prepare today to meet the challenges of this Extreme Future.
1. Fueling the Future - The energy crisis, the costs, the post-oil future, and the future of energy alternatives like hydrogen, hybrids, and biofuels will be an essential factor into every business decision. The critical role that energy will play in every aspect of our lives in the 21st century will shape business and society.
2. The Innovation Economy - The central driver of future commerce will be innovation industries. Investing today in fast moving patents, innovations, ideas, like the Four Power Tools of the future: nano-bio-neuro-info, and products will shape competitive advantage.
3. Talent War - Talented people are the key to business success. There will be more jobs than skilled people to fill them. Companies will compete for the growing shortage of skilled people. More incentives to keep and recruit the best people will emerge.
4. Longevity Medicine - Health care is being transformed by biotech and genomics. People will be living longer, healthier and more productive lives. The human enhancement marketplace, offering new organs, new memories, new limbs, new skin and new lives, will translate into the largest market of the future—even immortality, for some, will be possible.
5. Weird Science - Always-On wireless Internet, teleportation, smart materials, space tourism—Weird new science will change every aspect of our lives, culture and economy, leading to new jobs, new products and new options. Nations and businesses that invest in future science will profit in economic growth.
6. Securing the Future - A new risk landscape is emerging from war, to hackers, to terrorists, to mind control, which will pose new challenges for individuals, governments and business. The personal security market will be lucrative.
7. The Future of Globalization - The new realities of more open global trade will offer both risk and opportunity in the near future. The rise of China and India; the clash of different cultures and ideas. Free trade, open markets and improved quality of life will define the 21st century.
8. The Future of Climate Change - The environment is changing and we need to prepare for increased global warming, pollution, and threats to biodiversity that will present new business opportunities. At the same time, the Clean Tech market will offer business a large financial opportunity to clean up the planet.
9. The Future of the Individual - The near future will provide opportunities for personal wealth creation that will underlie all other trends. Individual invention and innovation will accelerate business success. We will also see a struggle to balance individual freedom, privacy and security.
10. The Future of America and China - How the destiny of these two great nations - from capitalism to democracy, to innovation and security - will shape the future.
Instituto da Inteligência, Portugal
News from Institute for Alternative Futures
The future is fundamentally uncertain, yet there are discernable directions, even if signs point to conflicting and multiple outcomes. For some, uncertainty justifies not thinking about the future, while for others the uncertainty is a source of opportunity. Without a concerted effort to be future-focused, organizations run grave risks of diminished importance or even oblivion in the fluctuating world of the early 21st century. Thinking about the future increases the likelihood of success in the long run.
All of our experience is with the past, but all of our decisions are about the future. Many people have assumed that their past experience is a fairly reliable guide to the future-the future will simply be a bigger and better version of the world with which they are familiar. However, the pace of change now makes it clear to thoughtful people that continuity can no longer be taken for granted. In area after area today, we are confronted by true uncertainty: we really do not know what will happen, but we know it is going to happen more quickly.
The future cannot be predicted. The word "futures" in futures studies is plural because there is no one preordained future that is fated to occur. Rather, there are many different possible alternative futures. Instead of predicting what the future will be, futurists use a wide range of methodologies to engage in structured and thoughtful speculation about future possibilities. This helps people prepare for whatever future comes, and positions them to be more able to create the future they prefer. You can view IAF’s Wiser Futures Compendium that showcases IAF’s Aspirational Futures approach to futures studies. The Wider Futures Compendium is part of the Wiser Futures Workshop run annually at the World Futures Society Annual Conference and is one of IAF’s many workshop conducted with clients. You can learn more about the services offered by IAF here.
The Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF) is a nonprofit research and educational organization founded in 1977 by Clement Bezold, James Dator and Alvin Toffler. IAF specializes in aiding organizations and individuals to more wisely choose and create their preferred futures.
In its many projects and programs, IAF has developed unique forms of facilitation that encourage openness to exploring the future and assist rapid learning. Operating from a thoughtful base of futures research, IAF meetings have stimulated policy discussions and facilitated strategic planning efforts for many organizations. The dialogue produced in these meetings and the associated written materials have created both greater insight into current practices and foresight about the impact that trends and emerging issues might have. Click to view a showcase of past projects or click here to view the new brochure (PDF).
Projects
Audiology Foundation of America
Futures Scan for the American Society of Association Executives Foundation
National Association of Elementary School Principals Looks to the Future
Looking Deeper: Strategic Issues Shaping the Global Future of Mechanical Engineering
American Cancer Society Focuses on Prevention and Control
Anticipating the Forces of Change for Orthodontics
IAF Assists AARP on Aging Projects
International Council of Nurses Creates Vision for 100th Anniversary
Safe Kids Worldwide Strategic Framework
2017 Scenarios for Occupational Therapy
Read more from IAF....news & events.
All of our experience is with the past, but all of our decisions are about the future. Many people have assumed that their past experience is a fairly reliable guide to the future-the future will simply be a bigger and better version of the world with which they are familiar. However, the pace of change now makes it clear to thoughtful people that continuity can no longer be taken for granted. In area after area today, we are confronted by true uncertainty: we really do not know what will happen, but we know it is going to happen more quickly.
The future cannot be predicted. The word "futures" in futures studies is plural because there is no one preordained future that is fated to occur. Rather, there are many different possible alternative futures. Instead of predicting what the future will be, futurists use a wide range of methodologies to engage in structured and thoughtful speculation about future possibilities. This helps people prepare for whatever future comes, and positions them to be more able to create the future they prefer. You can view IAF’s Wiser Futures Compendium that showcases IAF’s Aspirational Futures approach to futures studies. The Wider Futures Compendium is part of the Wiser Futures Workshop run annually at the World Futures Society Annual Conference and is one of IAF’s many workshop conducted with clients. You can learn more about the services offered by IAF here.
The Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF) is a nonprofit research and educational organization founded in 1977 by Clement Bezold, James Dator and Alvin Toffler. IAF specializes in aiding organizations and individuals to more wisely choose and create their preferred futures.
In its many projects and programs, IAF has developed unique forms of facilitation that encourage openness to exploring the future and assist rapid learning. Operating from a thoughtful base of futures research, IAF meetings have stimulated policy discussions and facilitated strategic planning efforts for many organizations. The dialogue produced in these meetings and the associated written materials have created both greater insight into current practices and foresight about the impact that trends and emerging issues might have. Click to view a showcase of past projects or click here to view the new brochure (PDF).
Projects
Audiology Foundation of America
Futures Scan for the American Society of Association Executives Foundation
National Association of Elementary School Principals Looks to the Future
Looking Deeper: Strategic Issues Shaping the Global Future of Mechanical Engineering
American Cancer Society Focuses on Prevention and Control
Anticipating the Forces of Change for Orthodontics
IAF Assists AARP on Aging Projects
International Council of Nurses Creates Vision for 100th Anniversary
Safe Kids Worldwide Strategic Framework
2017 Scenarios for Occupational Therapy
Read more from IAF....news & events.
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