tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-81101625975966030712024-02-19T08:45:30.563+00:00"The Extreme Future" by Nelson S. LimaNews from futuristsNelson Limahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04197454495755218569noreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8110162597596603071.post-50313293373536825142015-07-25T17:31:00.000+01:002015-07-26T12:15:06.642+01:00OUR FUTURE<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Nelson Limahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04197454495755218569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8110162597596603071.post-3290868591277419862015-03-09T11:00:00.000+00:002015-07-26T12:20:31.022+01:00How to Make a Mind<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-size: 14px;"><img align="left" src="http://www.gurdjieff-legacy.org/90art/kurzweil.jpg" height="200" hspace="10" style="border: 0px;" width="156" />The mammalian brain has a distinct aptitude not found in any other class of animal. We are capable of <i>hierarchical</i>thinking, of understanding a structure composed of diverse elements arranged in a pattern, representing that arrangement with a symbol, and then using that symbol as an element in a yet more elaborate configuration.</span><br />
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This capability takes place in a brain structure called the<i>neocortex, </i>which in humans has achieved a threshold of sophistication and capacity such that we are able to call these patterns <i>ideas.</i> We are capable of building ideas that are ever more complex. We call this vast array of recursively linked ideas <i>knowledge. </i>Only <i>Homo sapiens</i>have a knowledge base that itself evolves, grows exponentially, and is passed down from one generation to another.</div>
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We are now in a position to speed up the learning process by a factor of thousands or millions once again by migrating from biological to nonbiological intelligence. Once a digital neocortex learns a skill, it can transfer that know-how in minutes or even seconds. Ultimately we will create an artificial neocortex that has the full range and flexibility of its human counterpart.</div>
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Consider the benefits. Electronic circuits are millions of times faster than our biological circuits. At first we will have to devote all of this speed increase to compensating for the relative lack of parallelism in our computers. Parallelism is what gives our brains the ability to do so many different types of operations—walking, talking, reasoning—all at once, and perform these tasks so seamlessly that we live our lives blissfully unaware that they are occurring at all. The digital neocortex will be much faster than the biological variety and will only continue to increase in speed.</div>
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When we augment our own neocortex with a synthetic version, we won’t have to worry about how much additional neocortex can physically fit into our bodies and brains, as most of it will be in the cloud, like most of the computing we use today. We have about 300 million pattern recognizers in our biological neocortex. That’s as much as could be squeezed into our skulls even with the evolutionary innovation of a large forehead and with the neocortex taking about 80% of the available space. As soon as we start thinking in the cloud, there will be no natural limits—we will be able to use billions or trillions of pattern recognizers, basically whatever we need, and whatever the law of accelerating returns can provide at each point in time.</div>
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In order for a digital neocortex to learn a new skill, it will still require many iterations of education, just as a biological neocortex does. Once a single digital neocortex somewhere and at some time learns something, however, it can share that knowledge with every other digital neocortex without delay. We can each have our own private neocortex extenders in the cloud, just as we have our own private stores of personal data today.</div>
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Last but not least, we will be able to back up the digital portion of our intelligence. It is frightening to contemplate that none of the information contained in our neocortex is backed up today. There is, of course, one way in which we do back up some of the information in our brains: by writing it down. The ability to transfer at least some of our thinking to a medium that can outlast our biological bodies was a huge step forward, but a great deal of data in our brains continues to remain vulnerable.</div>
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The Next Chapter in Artificial Intelligence</h4>
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Artificial intelligence is all around us. The simple act of connecting with someone via a text message, e-mail, or cell-phone call uses intelligent algorithms to route the information. Almost every product we touch is originally designed in a collaboration between human and artificial intelligence and then built in automated factories. If all the AI systems decided to go on strike tomorrow, our civilization would be crippled: We couldn’t get money from our bank, and indeed, our money would disappear; communication, transportation, and manufacturing would all grind to a halt. Fortunately, our intelligent machines are not yet intelligent enough to organize such a conspiracy.</div>
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What is new in AI today is the viscerally impressive nature of publicly available examples. For example, consider Google’s self-driving cars, which as of this writing have gone over 200,000 miles in cities and towns. This technology will lead to significantly fewer crashes and increased capacity of roads, alleviate the requirement of humans to perform the chore of driving, and bring many other benefits.</div>
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Driverless cars are actually already legal to operate on public roads in Nevada with some restrictions, although widespread usage by the public throughout the world is not expected until late in this decade. Technology that intelligently watches the road and warns the driver of impending dangers is already being installed in cars. One such technology is based in part on the successful model of visual processing in the brain created by MIT’s Tomaso Poggio. Called MobilEye, it was developed by Amnon Shashua, a former postdoctoral student of Poggio’s. It is capable of alerting the driver to such dangers as an impending collision or a child running in front of the car and has recently been installed in cars by such manufacturers as Volvo and BMW.</div>
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I will focus now on language technologies for several reasons: Not surprisingly, the hierarchical nature of language closely mirrors the hierarchical nature of our thinking. Spoken language was our first technology, with written language as the second. My own work in artificial intelligence has been heavily focused on language. Finally, mastering language is a powerfully leveraged capability. Watson, the IBM computer that beat two former <i>Jeopardy!</i> champions in 2011, has already read hundreds of millions of pages on the Web and mastered the knowledge contained in these documents. Ultimately, machines will be able to master all of the knowledge on the Web—which is essentially all of the knowledge of our human–machine civilization.</div>
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One does not need to be an AI expert to be moved by the performance of Watson on <i>Jeopardy!</i> Although I have a reasonable understanding of the methodology used in a number of its key subsystems, that does not diminish my emotional reaction to watching it—him?—perform. Even a perfect understanding of how all of its component systems work would not help you to predict how Watson would actually react to a given situation. It contains hundreds of interacting subsystems, and each of these is considering millions of competing hypotheses at the same time, so predicting the outcome is impossible. Doing a thorough analysis—after the fact—of Watson’s deliberations for a single three-second query would take a human centuries.</div>
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One limitation of the <i>Jeopardy! </i>game is that the answers are generally brief: It does not, for example, pose questions of the sort that ask contestants to name the five primary themes of <i>A Tale of Two Cities.</i> To the extent that it can find documents that do discuss the themes of this novel, a suitably modified version of Watson should be able to respond to this. Coming up with such themes on its own from just reading the book, and not essentially copying the thoughts (even without the words) of other thinkers, is another matter. Doing so would constitute a higher-level task than Watson is capable of today.</div>
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It is noteworthy that, although Watson’s language skills are actually somewhat below that of an educated human, it was able to defeat the best two <i>Jeopardy!</i> players in the world. It could accomplish this because it is able to combine its language ability and knowledge understanding with the perfect recall and highly accurate memories that machines possess. That is why we have already largely assigned our personal, social, and historical memories to them.</div>
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Wolfram|Alpha is one important system that demonstrates the strength of computing applied to organized knowledge. Wolfram|Alpha is an answer engine (as opposed to a search engine) developed by British mathematician and scientist Stephen Wolfram and his colleagues at Wolfram Research. For example, if you ask Wolfram|Alpha, “How many primes are there under a million?” it will respond with “78,498.” It did not look up the answer, it computed it, and following the answer it provides the equations it used. If you attempted to get that answer using a conventional search engine, it would direct you to links where you could find the algorithms required. You would then have to plug those formulas into a system such as Mathematica, also developed by Wolfram, but this would obviously require a lot more work (and understanding) than simply asking Alpha.</div>
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Indeed, Alpha consists of 15 million lines of Mathematica code. What Alpha is doing is literally computing the answer from approximately 10 trillion bytes of data that has been carefully curated by the Wolfram Research staff. You can ask a wide range of factual questions, such as, “What country has the highest GDP per person?” (Answer: Monaco, with $212,000 per person in U.S. dollars), or “How old is Stephen Wolfram?” (he was born in 1959; the answer is 52 years, 9 months, 2 days on the day I am writing this). Alpha is used as part of Apple’s Siri; if you ask Siri a factual question, it is handed off to Alpha to handle. Alpha also handles some of the searches posed to Microsoft’s Bing search engine.</div>
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Wolfram reported in a recent blog post that Alpha is now providing successful responses 90% of the time. He also reports an exponential decrease in the failure rate, with a half-life of around 18 months. It is an impressive system, and uses handcrafted methods and hand-checked data. It is a testament to why we created computers in the first place. As we discover and compile scientific and mathematical methods, computers are far better than unaided human intelligence in implementing them. Most of the known scientific methods have been encoded in Alpha, along with continually updated data on topics ranging from economics to physics.</div>
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In a private conversation I had with him, Wolfram estimated that self-organizing methods such as those used in Watson typically achieve about an 80% accuracy when they are working well. Alpha, he pointed out, is achieving about a 90% accuracy. Of course, there is self-selection in both of these accuracy numbers, in that users (such as myself) have learned what kinds of questions Alpha is good at, and a similar factor applies to the self-organizing methods. Some 80% appears to be a reasonable estimate of how accurate Watson is on<i>Jeopardy! </i>queries, but this was sufficient to defeat the best humans.</div>
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It is my view that self-organizing methods such as I articulate as the pattern-recognition theory of mind, or PRTM, are needed to understand the elaborate and often ambiguous hierarchies we encounter in real-world phenomena, including human language. Ideally, a robustly intelligent system would combine hierarchical intelligence based on the PRTM (which I contend is how the human brain works) with precise codification of scientific knowledge and data. That essentially describes a human with a computer.</div>
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We will enhance both poles of intelligence in the years ahead. With regard to our biological intelligence, although our neocortex has significant plasticity, its basic architecture is limited by its physical constraints. Putting additional neocortex into our foreheads was an important evolutionary innovation, but we cannot now easily expand the size of our frontal lobes by a factor of a thousand, or even by 10%. That is, we cannot do so biologically, but that is exactly what we will do technologically.</div>
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Our digital brain will also accommodate substantial redundancy of each pattern, especially ones that occur frequently. This allows for robust recognition of common patterns and is also one of the key methods to achieving invariant recognition of different forms of a pattern. We will, however, need rules for how much redundancy to permit, as we don’t want to use up excessive amounts of memory on very common low-level patterns.</div>
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Educating Our Nonbiological Brain</h4>
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A very important consideration is the education of a brain, whether a biological or a software one. A hierarchical pattern-recognition system (digital or biological) will only learn about two—preferably one—hierarchical levels at a time. To bootstrap the system, I would start with previously trained hierarchical networks that have already learned their lessons in recognizing human speech, printed characters, and natural-language structures.</div>
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Such a system would be capable of reading natural-language documents but would only be able to master approximately one conceptual level at a time. Previously learned levels would provide a relatively stable basis to learn the next level. The system can read the same documents over and over, gaining new conceptual levels with each subsequent reading, similar to the way people reread and achieve a deeper understanding of texts. Billions of pages of material are available on the Web. Wikipedia itself has about 4 million articles in the English version.</div>
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I would also provide a critical-thinking module, which would perform a continual background scan of all of the existing patterns, reviewing their compatibility with the other patterns (ideas) in this software neocortex. We have no such facility in our biological brains, which is why people can hold completely inconsistent thoughts with equanimity. Upon identifying an inconsistent idea, the digital module would begin a search for a resolution, including its own cortical structures as well as all of the vast literature available to it. A resolution might mean determining that one of the inconsistent ideas is simply incorrect (if contraindicated by a preponderance of conflicting data). More constructively, it would find an idea at a higher conceptual level that resolves the apparent contradiction by providing a perspective that explains each idea. The system would add this resolution as a new pattern and link to the ideas that initially triggered the search for the resolution. This critical thinking module would run as a continual background task. It would be very beneficial if human brains did the same thing.</div>
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I would also provide a module that identifies open questions in every discipline. As another continual background task, it would search for solutions to them in other disparate areas of knowledge. The knowledge in the neocortex consists of deeply nested patterns of patterns and is therefore entirely metaphorical. We can use one pattern to provide a solution or insight in an apparently disconnected field.</div>
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As an example, molecules in a gas move randomly with no apparent sense of direction. Despite this, virtually every molecule in a gas in a beaker, given sufficient time, will leave the beaker. This provides a perspective on an important question concerning the evolution of intelligence. Like molecules in a gas, evolutionary changes also move every which way with no apparent direction. Yet, we nonetheless see a movement toward greater complexity and greater intelligence, indeed to evolution’s supreme achievement of evolving a neocortex capable of hierarchical thinking. So we are able to gain an insight into how an apparently purposeless and directionless process can achieve an apparently purposeful result in one field (biological evolution) by looking at another field (thermodynamics).</div>
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We should provide a means of stepping through multiple lists simultaneously to provide the equivalent of structured thought. A list might be the statement of the constraints that a solution to a problem must satisfy. Each step can generate a recursive search through the existing hierarchy of ideas or a search through available literature. The human brain appears to be only able to handle four simultaneous lists at a time (without the aid of tools such as computers), but there is no reason for an artificial neocortex to have such a limitation.</div>
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We will also want to enhance our artificial brains with the kind of intelligence that computers have always excelled in, which is the ability to master vast databases accurately and implement known algorithms quickly and efficiently Wolfram|Alpha uniquely combines a great many known scientific methods and applies them to carefully collected data. This type of system is also going to continue to improve, given Stephen Wolfram’s observation of an exponential decline in error rates.</div>
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Finally, our new brain needs a purpose. A purpose is expressed as a series of goals. In the case of our biological brains, our goals are established by the pleasure and fear centers that we have inherited from the old brain. These primitive drives were initially set by biological evolution to foster the survival of species, but the neocortex has enabled us to sublimate them. Watson’s goal was to respond to <i>Jeopardy!</i> queries. Another simply stated goal could be to pass the Turing test. To do so, a digital brain would need a human narrative of its own fictional story so that it can pretend to be a biological human. It would also have to dumb itself down considerably, for any system that displayed the knowledge of Watson, for instance, would be quickly unmasked as nonbiological.</div>
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More interestingly, we could give our new brain a more ambitious goal, such as contributing to a better world. A goal along these lines, of course, raises a lot of questions: Better for whom? Better in what way? For biological humans? For all conscious beings? If that is the case, who or what is conscious?</div>
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As nonbiological brains become as capable as biological ones of effecting changes in the world—indeed, ultimately far more capable than unenhanced biological ones—we will need to consider their moral education. A good place to start would be with one old idea from our religious traditions: the golden rule.</div>
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About the Author</h4>
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Ray Kurzweil is an inventor, writer, and futurist. Among his honors are the MIT-Lemelson Prize, the National Medal of Technology, and, in 2002, induction into the U.S Patent Office’s National Inventor’s Hall of Fame.</div>
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This article was excerpted from his most recent book, <i>How to Create a Mind</i> (Viking, 2012).</div>
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<b>From <i>How to Create a Mind</i> by Ray Kurzweil. Copyright © 2012, Ray Kurzweil. Reprinted by arrangement with Viking, a member of Penguin Group (USA) Inc.</b></div>
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Nelson Limahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04197454495755218569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8110162597596603071.post-58109250132550611772014-03-07T13:12:00.004+00:002015-07-26T12:19:40.050+01:00Welcome to the monoculture<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Here's the local supermarket in a little town, way off the beaten
path. And there, right next to the cash register, are Lindt chocolate
bars - from Switzerland.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Here's the local radio station, thousands of miles from the
epicenters of music culture. And the next song--it's the one that kids
in every country in the world are watching right now on YouTube.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Monoculture doesn't always mean the status quo. They sell more salsa
than ketchup now. It doesn't mean only the established brands win--you
can find Kind bars and Teslas in more and more places.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">What monoculture does mean is that the churn isn't local as much as
it's national and worldwide now. It means the stakes are far higher,
because the step from niche win to worldwide win is smaller than it's
ever been before.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Your blog, your line of clothes, your song, your cause--there's more
competition than ever before (by a lot) because you compete with the
world now. And there's more upside, too.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Posted by </span><a href="http://profile.typepad.com/sethgodin">Seth Godin</a></span></span> </div>
Nelson Limahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04197454495755218569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8110162597596603071.post-24451757920688982102014-01-24T11:36:00.000+00:002015-03-09T12:46:58.013+00:0010 business facing extinction in 10 years!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20873711/">Determining which industries aren't long for this world may seem easy enough. But some types of businesses, such as telemarketing, are surprisingly hard to kill. And then again, other industries, probably the ones you're sad to see go, can't find a way to survive. </a><br />
Read >> <a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20873711/">Full story</a></div>
Nelson Limahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04197454495755218569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8110162597596603071.post-51226537367247844112014-01-15T12:27:00.001+00:002014-01-15T12:30:00.072+00:00UK Jobs Market In Robust Health<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Further
evidence of a recovery in the UK jobs market is provided by the latest
Recruitment & Employment Confederation (REC)/KPMG Report on Jobs. The
report for December shows the strongest rise in permanent placements since
March 2010.</div>
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<span lang="EN-US">With
vacancy growth close to its November high, there are increased concerns about
the availability of staff to fill permanent roles. The rate of decline in
temporary/contract staff availability remained substantial.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">The REC's
head of policy Kate Shoesmith says: "Growing confidence means more and
more employers are willing to invest in their workforce and take on more
people. The real concern now is the mismatch between demand and supply with
recruiters reporting that they can't source suitable candidates for vacancies
in a whole range of sectors. Companies want to hire more salespeople,
accountants and businesses development staff to help their enterprises grow,
but can't find people with the right skills to take the jobs."<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><b><span style="color: cyan;">One In Five
Plan To Leave Job This Year</span></b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">According
to a new survey nearly one in five people are planning to change jobs in 2014.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Conducted
by the Institute of Leadership & Management (ILM), the survey shows that
19% plan to leave their job while almost a third are considering it. Around one
in six people surveyed said that they were planning to leave because they do
not feel valued by their current organisation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Charles
Elvin, Chief Executive of the Institute of Leadership & Management, said:
"The New Year is always a popular time for workers to look ahead and think
about how they can progress. Our findings show that UK employees are beginning
to reassess the job market and look into a range of new opportunities, from
starting a new job to developing a new business."<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Elvin adds:
"The survey illustrates just how crucial it is that workers feel valued in
the workplace. As many workers like to make a change at this time of year, it
is important that organisations adapt to this phase by offering the chance to
learn new skills and opportunities to progress wherever possible."<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><b><span style="color: cyan;">Improved UK
Confidence Boosts UK Hiring</span></b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">A broad
based improvement in all activity levels in all regions and specialisms in
recruitment firm Hays' UK business was a key factor behind a solid performance
by the international recruiter, according to the company's group finance
director, Paul Venables.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">On the back
of the improved market conditions, Venables said Hays' income from permanent
placements rose by 17%, their highest growth rate for six years. Hays'
temporary business also grew, albeit it less strongly at 5%, with overall NFI
up 10%. The East of the UK, London, the Midlands, Northern Ireland, the
North-West and Scotland, each of which grew by more than 10%, while Ireland
delivered net fee growth of 30%.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Venables
said that construction and property had been particularly strong as the sector
recovered after a number of weak years. He added that in order to support the
expected continuing growth in the UK business, Hays had targeted a 5-10%
increase in UK headcount in the next six months.</span></div>
</div>
Nelson Limahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04197454495755218569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8110162597596603071.post-18432636341031045922013-12-23T11:35:00.000+00:002013-12-23T12:17:51.438+00:00Workshops and Seminars about THE FUTURE<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhF6ei6iZn45oa2QOHmCOMFOAZjZEjvLBFtEsYk1IVFps6T3Bamqt4mVQapG8fR9ndq_tP2UeiaM0lluGR1Phav0BxyclfOrI8ivFP0bdGKLtE34gHSQJl4zfglg8j0w_cxOSh3AJCMebXr/s1600-h/IMG_17.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5245469298534863906" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhF6ei6iZn45oa2QOHmCOMFOAZjZEjvLBFtEsYk1IVFps6T3Bamqt4mVQapG8fR9ndq_tP2UeiaM0lluGR1Phav0BxyclfOrI8ivFP0bdGKLtE34gHSQJl4zfglg8j0w_cxOSh3AJCMebXr/s400/IMG_17.jpg" style="cursor: hand; float: left; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px;" /></a>Foresight is an inevitable instrument of modern management to make decisions and improve success in business. In an age of hyperchange and hypercompetition, developing foresight and seeing our way to the future is harder. But you can now learn more about foresight techniques (such as trend analysis, scanning, scenario analysis, and more) with our help. We offer a variety of lectures, seminars, workshops and courses for individuals, companies and other organizations to understand megatrends and discover the future concerning economic and business development and global trends of general interest.<br />
<b>Workshops, Lectures & Seminars:</b><br />
- What is Futuring?<br />
- Visions for the 21st century<br />
- How to design future maps<br />
- Foresight, innovation and strategy<br />
- How to think creatively in turbulent times?<br />
- The Exploration of Business Today and Tomorrow<br />
- The Future of Globalization<br />
- The Future of Education<br />
- Prepare your workforce for the future challenges<br />
- Business Excellence in the Knowledge Economy<br />
- New markets, new business<br />
- New world, new values<br />
- New business, new jobs<br />
- New mind for the future challenges<br />
- The end of an Era: the future of management<br />
- Smart decisions in hypercompetitive markets<br />
- Introduction to Neuroeconomy<br />
- What is Neuromarketing?<br />
- What is Neuroadvertising?<br />
<i>Email us to</i><br />
<a href="mailto:mps@secretary.net">mps@secretary.net</a><br />
<a href="mailto:nelsonslima@yahoo.co.uk">nelsonslima@yahoo.co.uk</a><br />
<a href="mailto:info@unifuturo.net">info@unifuturo.net</a>Nelson Limahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04197454495755218569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8110162597596603071.post-36203513009443297142013-12-23T11:30:00.000+00:002013-12-23T12:12:21.793+00:00The road to...<div align="center">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAN9SPW5bx0vTwCRu3244N53hHk4ng9xLjT16akr9jh9w7DVQAkP7EP2fgK2g92vhL5wC04jKAWOB33qxkQ5nm9_lie16X891YBkTD1xp0YvjsCyB7DA6K0kM1g8cL8QnuJKYbWH90PvVX/s1600-h/WFSheader5.gif"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5229557199320435570" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAN9SPW5bx0vTwCRu3244N53hHk4ng9xLjT16akr9jh9w7DVQAkP7EP2fgK2g92vhL5wC04jKAWOB33qxkQ5nm9_lie16X891YBkTD1xp0YvjsCyB7DA6K0kM1g8cL8QnuJKYbWH90PvVX/s400/WFSheader5.gif" style="cursor: hand; display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center;" /></a><i><span style="color: #cc33cc; font-family: arial;"><b>These are a few forecasts from members of </b></span></i></div>
<div align="center">
<i><span style="color: #cc33cc; font-family: arial;"><b>The World Future Society:</b></span></i></div>
<span style="color: #ff6600;">Forecast 1:</span><br />
The world will have a billion millionaires by 2025. Globalization and technological innovation are driving this increased prosperity. But challenges to prosperity will also become more acute, such as water shortages that will affect two-thirds of world population by 2025.<br />
<span style="color: #ff6600;">Forecast 2:</span><br />
Fashion will go wired as technologies and tastes converge to revolutionize the textile industry. Researchers in smart fabrics and intelligent textiles (SFIT) are working with the fashion industry to bring us color-changing or perfume-emitting jeans, wristwatches that work as digital wallets, and running shoes like the Nike +iPod that watch where you're going (possibly allowing others to do the same). Powering these gizmos remains a key obstacle. But industry watchers estimate that a $400 million market for SFIT is already in place and predict that smart fabrics could revitalize the U.S. and European textile industry.<br />
<span style="color: #ff6600;">Forecast 3:</span><br />
The threat of another cold war with China, Russia, or both could replace terrorism as the chief foreign-policy concern of the United States. Scenarios for what a war with China or Russia would look like make the clashes and wars in which the United States is now involved seem insignificant. The power of radical jihadists is trivial compared with Soviet missile capabilities, for instance. The focus of U.S. foreign policy should thus be on preventing an engagement among Great Powers.<br />
<span style="color: #ff6600;">Forecast 4:</span><br />
Counterfeiting of currency will proliferate, driving the move toward a cashless society. Sophisticated new optical scanning technologies could, in the next five years, be a boon for currency counterfeiters, so societies are increasingly putting aside their privacy fears about going cashless. Meanwhile, cashless technologies are improving, making them far easier and safer to use.<br />
<span style="color: #ff6600;">Forecast 5:</span><br />
The earth is on the verge of a significant extinction event. The twenty-first century could witness a biodiversity collapse 100 to 1,000 times greater than any previous extinction since the dawn of humanity, according to the World Resources Institute. Protecting biodiversity in a time of increased resource consumption, overpopulation, and environmental degradation will require continued sacrifice on the part of local, often impoverished communities. Experts contend that incorporating local communities' economic interests into conservation plans will be essential to species protection in the next century.Nelson Limahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04197454495755218569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8110162597596603071.post-83236135561833464692013-12-23T11:00:00.000+00:002013-12-23T11:44:54.572+00:00Scientists Create Artifical Brain<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiz3SxcmZVSaXWb4MO8vBHJfLLHKj-ZA5Nbpx42H1gREJYukf036k-jiB9LKESWLjE0yd7aJuQTZ4ySnrGH9Xj_PldMuqMVBiMuV-3XDCoksEV5eq2uE7WGakNM3U5GftchdqOxJ4LWsVyu/s1600-h/neurobica3.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" height="170" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5247689450508564914" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiz3SxcmZVSaXWb4MO8vBHJfLLHKj-ZA5Nbpx42H1gREJYukf036k-jiB9LKESWLjE0yd7aJuQTZ4ySnrGH9Xj_PldMuqMVBiMuV-3XDCoksEV5eq2uE7WGakNM3U5GftchdqOxJ4LWsVyu/s200/neurobica3.jpg" style="cursor: hand; float: left; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px;" width="142" /></a><br />
<div>
<a href="http://www.dailygalaxy.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/05/23/blue_brain_5.jpg"></a>A network of artificial nerves is evolving right now in a Swiss supercomputer. This bizarre creation is capable of simulating a natural brain, cell-for-cell. The Swiss scientists, who created what they have dubbed "Blue Brain", believe it will soon offer a better understanding of human consciousness. This is no sci-fi flick; it’s an actual ‘computer brain’ that may eventually have the ability to think for itself. Exciting? Scary? It could be a little of both.<br />
<br />
The designers say that "Blue Brain" was willful and unpredictable from day one. When it was first fed electrical impulses, strange patterns began to appear with lightning-like flashes produced by ‘cells’ that the scientists recognized from living human and animal processes. Neurons started interacting with one another until they were firing in rhythm. "<i>It happened entirely on its own</i>," says biologist Henry Markram, the project's director. "<i>Spontaneously</i>."<br />
<br />
The project essentially has its own factory to produce artificial brains. Their computers can clone nerve cells quickly. The system allows for the production of whole series of neurons of all different types. Because in natural brains, no two cells are exactly identical, the scientists make sure the artificial cells used for the project are also random and unique.<br />
<br />
Does this ‘Brain’ have a soul? If it does, it is likely to be the shadowy remnants of thousands of sacrificed rats whose brains were almost literally fed into the computer. After opening the rat skulls and slicing their brains into thin sections, the scientists kept the slices alive. Tiny sensors picked up individual neurons, recorded how the cells fired off neurons and the adjacent cells’ responses. In this way the scientists were able to collect entire repertoires of actual rat behavior- basically how a rat would respond in different situations throughout a rat's life.<br />
<br />
The researchers say it wouldn't present much of a technological challenge to bring the brain to life. "<i>We could simply connect a robot to the brain model</i>," says Markram. "<i>Then we could see how it reacts to real environments</i>."<br />
<br />
Are rats capable of revenge? What I’m wondering is what this brain would do to those researchers if it was attached to a giant metallic rat body and equipped with teeth and claws…now there’s a good sci-fi movie.<br />
<br />
Although over ten thousand artificial nerve cells have already been woven in, the researchers plan to increase the number to one million by next year. The researchers are already working with IBM experts on plans for a computer that would operate at inconceivable speeds – something fast enough to simulate the human brain. The project is scheduled to last beyond 2015, at which point the team hopes to be ready for their primary goal: a computer model of an entire human brain. So, who’s brain will they be slicing up for that one? Lets hope it’s not a psychopath.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,druck-466789,00.html">Story Link</a><br />
Read more...<br />
<a href="http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2007/04/neurotheology_i.html">Neurotheology -Is God Hardwired into the Human Brain?</a><br />
<a href="http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2007/03/charlie_rose_on.html">Mysteries of the Human Brain</a><br />
<a href="http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2007/05/origin_of_relig.html">Origin of Religion -Human Brain as "Belief Engine"</a><br />
<a href="http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2007/03/the_big_brain_d.html">The Biology of Awe</a><br />
<a href="http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2007/03/the_big_brain_d.html">Big Brain & the Pursuit of Happiness</a></div>
Nelson Limahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04197454495755218569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8110162597596603071.post-83301332387988362162013-01-02T16:10:00.004+00:002013-01-02T16:16:39.827+00:00What is the Executive Intelligence?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJRdncEzjkYrpPUZosQBFcVo8O6h_MZ4MMHJ3OycuX6xnNWaJnkvPu5KVOrblFSc3OtzNPeAf9JMHUXUSXDCyMyox9UaMniEVcK802LnYwyDDKhchiLdvWMHkvNtaM0v1-XmjGpu-MebGU/s1600/03.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="206" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJRdncEzjkYrpPUZosQBFcVo8O6h_MZ4MMHJ3OycuX6xnNWaJnkvPu5KVOrblFSc3OtzNPeAf9JMHUXUSXDCyMyox9UaMniEVcK802LnYwyDDKhchiLdvWMHkvNtaM0v1-XmjGpu-MebGU/s320/03.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="background-color: #000033; color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.78333282470703px;"></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #000033; color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.78333282470703px;"><span style="line-height: 20.78333282470703px;">According to Justin Menkes, executive intelligence is the ability to digest, often with the help of others, large amounts of information in order to form important decisions.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #000033; color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.78333282470703px;">Menkes says, "</span><em style="background-color: #000033; color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.78333282470703px;">Personality is not a differentiator of star talent. It is an individual's facility for clear thinking or intelligence that largely determines their leadership success."</em><br />
<span style="background-color: #000033; color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.78333282470703px;">What do you think is the relative importance of executive intelligence, style, and personality in effective leaders?</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #000033; color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.78333282470703px;">Stephen Burkett said: </span><em style="background-color: #000033; color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.78333282470703px;">"… I find that the core of the issue remains the definition of executive intelligence … Executive intelligence is less about number-crunching power or one's grasp of advanced concepts, and more about evaluating situations and taking appropriate action</em><span style="background-color: #000033; color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.78333282470703px;">." Quinton van Eeden added, "</span><em style="background-color: #000033; color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.78333282470703px;">Executive intelligence seems to be the sum of the parts—emotional intelligence, IQ, personality, values, and experience … A demonstration of executive intelligence must lie in the demonstrable ability to act and execute</em><span style="background-color: #000033; color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.78333282470703px;">." Paul Jackson took us to the next step in commenting, "</span><em style="background-color: #000033; color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.78333282470703px;">Once defined, how do we measure executive intelligence? Once measured, how do we assess its impact or usefulness?"</em><span style="background-color: #000033; color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.78333282470703px;"> And, we might add, how do we incorporate it into our everyday assessment of potential or actual leadership talent?</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #000033; color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.78333282470703px;">There was a full range of opinions regarding the importance of EI, perhaps in part due to the breadth with which the term was defined in each case. For example, Rowland Freeman opined, "</span><em style="background-color: #000033; color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.78333282470703px;">Intelligence is of value, but more important is demonstrated common sense. Some of the most intelligent leaders I have known were failures at leadership</em><span style="background-color: #000033; color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.78333282470703px;">." As Malvin Bernal put it, "</span><em style="background-color: #000033; color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.78333282470703px;">Executive intelligence will only guarantee a sound processing of information that produces decisions … Execution is the basic ingredient that makes a great leader</em><span style="background-color: #000033; color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.78333282470703px;">." On the other hand, Philip Derrow argued, "</span><em style="background-color: #000033; color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.78333282470703px;">Executive intelligence, particularly as Mr. Menkes defines it, is, I believe, the most important component for long-term leadership effectiveness … Three words that best describe effective people in any organization: smart and happy. Both the order and the conjunction are important . . .</em><span style="background-color: #000033; color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.78333282470703px;"> ." Harry Tucci went even further, saying: "</span><em style="background-color: #000033; color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.78333282470703px;">The concept of executive intelligence is a very useful measure of success … When it comes to meeting earnings and Street expectations I'll take the manager with his nose deep in a book any day</em><span style="background-color: #000033; color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.78333282470703px;">".</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #000033; color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.78333282470703px;">In: </span><a href="http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/5449.html" style="background-color: #000033; color: #cc0000; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.78333282470703px; text-decoration: initial;">http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/5449.html</a><br />
<span style="background-color: #000033; color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.78333282470703px;">Read more:</span><a href="http://uk.askmen.com/money/successful_150/155_success.html" style="background-color: #000033; color: #cc0000; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.78333282470703px; text-decoration: initial;">http://uk.askmen.com/money/successful_150/155_success.html</a>Nelson Limahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04197454495755218569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8110162597596603071.post-5526347147801280512012-08-13T11:46:00.000+01:002012-08-13T11:34:19.245+01:00Space Colonization<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGPyiVgXo5xCpfGLn17KzxZ437Vp8k4N23PxN3drP6_XEgHF87THB93DbOAGN3MG1y6uoqPBb444U9wSvD8X-wFY9BUYtifhgGlz2PMgXn0vdp3hNXECiuuDQ9Sg_Y0aCfF8aRErioIpL_/s1600-h/903220_big_2.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5245455614209509202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGPyiVgXo5xCpfGLn17KzxZ437Vp8k4N23PxN3drP6_XEgHF87THB93DbOAGN3MG1y6uoqPBb444U9wSvD8X-wFY9BUYtifhgGlz2PMgXn0vdp3hNXECiuuDQ9Sg_Y0aCfF8aRErioIpL_/s400/903220_big_2.jpg" style="cursor: hand; display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center;" /></a><span style="color: #ff9900; font-size: 130%;"><strong>Our Future or Fantasy?</strong></span><span style="font-size: 130%;"><br /></span><a href="http://www.dailygalaxy.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/06/19/space_travel_1.jpg"></a><a href="http://www.dailygalaxy.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/06/19/space_travel_2.jpg"></a><a href="http://www.dailygalaxy.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/06/19/space_colonies_2.jpg"></a><a href="http://www.dailygalaxy.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/06/19/space_travel.jpg"></a><a href="http://www.dailygalaxy.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/06/19/space_travel_2_2.jpg"></a><a href="http://www.dailygalaxy.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/06/19/space_colonies_2_2.jpg"></a>Humans have always been fascinated by the idea of space travel. Some even believe that colonizing new planets is man’s best hope for the future. The popular idea is that we’ll eventually need some fresh, unexploited new worlds to inhabit.<br />
In a recent <a href="http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2007/05/the_hawking_sol.html">Galaxy post</a> Stephen Hawking, world-celebrated expert on the cosmological theories of gravity and black holes who holds Issac Newton's Lucasian Chair at Cambridge University, say that he believes that traveling into space is the only way humans will be able to survive in the long-term.<br />
"<em>Life on Earth</em>," Hawking has said, "<em>is at the ever-increasing risk of being wiped out by a disaster such as sudden global warming, nuclear war, a genetically engineered virus or other dangers ... I think the human race has no future if it doesn't go into space</em>." <a href="" id="more"></a><br />
Another of his famous quotes reiterates his position that we need to get off the planet relatively soon. "<em>I don't think the human race will survive the next 1,000 years unless we spread into space</em>."<br />
The problems with Hawking’s solution is that while it may save a “seed” of human life- a few lucky specimens- it won’t save Earth’s inhabitants. The majority of Earthlings would surely be left behind on a planet increasingly unfit for life.<br />
In a futuristic mode similar to Hawking, both Steven Dick, chief NASA historian and Carnegie-Mellon robotics pundit, Hans Moravec, believe that human biological evolution is but a passing phase: the future of mankind will be as vastly evolved sentient machines capable of self-replicating and exploring the farthest reaches of the Universe programmed with instructions on how to recreate earth life and humans to target stars.<br />
Dick believes that if there is a flaw in the logic of the Fermi Paradox, and extraterrestrials are a natural outcome of cosmic evolution, then cultural evolution may have resulted in a post-biological universe in which machines are the predominant intelligence.<br />
Renowned science-fiction writer, Charlie Stross, argued last week in his <a href="http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2007/06/the_high_frontier_redux.html">High Frontier Redux</a> blog that space colonization is not in our future, not because it's impossible, but because to do so effectively you need either outrageous amounts of cheap energy, highly efficient robot probes, or "a magic wand."<br />
"<em>I'm going to take it as read that the idea of space colonization isn't unfamiliar</em>," Stross opens his post, "<em>domed cities on Mars, orbiting cylindrical space habitats a la J. D. Bernal or Gerard K. O'Neill, that sort of thing. Generation ships that take hundreds of years to ferry colonists out to other star systems where — as we are now discovering — there are profusions of planets to explore."</em><br />
"<em>The obstacles facing us are immense distance and time -the scale factor involved in space travel is strongly counter-intuitive</em>."<br />
Stross adds that "<em>Planets that are already habitable insofar as they orbit inside the habitable zone of their star, possess free oxygen in their atmosphere, and have a mass, surface gravity and escape velocity that are not too forbidding, are likely to be somewhat rarer. (And if there is free oxygen in the atmosphere on a planet, that implies something else — the presence of pre-existing photosynthetic life, a carbon cycle, and a bunch of other stuff that could well unleash a big can of whoop-ass on an unprimed human immune system."</em><br />
Stross sums up by saying that while "<em>I won't rule out the possibility of such seemingly-magical technology appearing at some time in the future in the absence of technology indistinguishable from magic that, interstellar travel for human beings even in the comfort of our own Solar System is near-as-dammit a non-starter." </em><br />
Stross's blog received over 450 comments as of this writing. The most prescient follows:<br />
"First, Stross's analysis fails to take into account future civilization types; I get the sense that he takes a normative view of today's technological and economic realities and projects them into the future. This is surprising, not only because he's an outstanding science fiction visionary, but also because he's a transhumanist who has a very good grasp on what awaits humanity in the future. Specifically, he should be taking into account the possibility of post-Singularity, Drexlerian, Kardashev Type II civilizations. Essentially, we're talking about post-scarcity civilizations with access to molecular assembling nanotechnology, radically advanced materials, artificial superintelligence, and access to most of the energy available in the solar system.<br />
"<em>Stross also too easily dismisses how machine intelligences, uploaded entities and AGI will impact on how space could be colonized. He speculates about biological humans being sent from solar system to solar system, and complains of the psychological and social hardships that could be inflicted on an individual or crew. He even speculates about the presence of extraterrestrial pathogens that undoubtedly awaits our daring explorers. This is a highly unlikely scenario. Biological humans will have no role to play in space. Instead, this work will be done by robots and quite possibly cyborgs (which is how the term 'cyborg' came to exist in the first place)."</em><br />
Related Posts >><br />
<a href="http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2007/06/transformers_th.html">Transformers -The Movie & Evolution of Machine Intelligence</a>Nelson Limahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04197454495755218569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8110162597596603071.post-45487971533508505782010-06-30T09:18:00.003+01:002010-06-30T09:23:23.674+01:002010 and beyond!<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJr2VfoamsZXM7QtKuqzyuI49W-1BWHwh-PN5EoYHnRLHF9qYTfNhXU4qyie_40jDRwRLc3ikBQREXJttVcABCjzGwrzBDc0-H4sg6NX4VWS14ylrrRhIJQsmoiQ4HyxfpMqCBNRsfaJ4A/s1600/JA2010FuturistCover.jpg"><img style="MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 153px; FLOAT: left; HEIGHT: 200px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5488479054424892690" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJr2VfoamsZXM7QtKuqzyuI49W-1BWHwh-PN5EoYHnRLHF9qYTfNhXU4qyie_40jDRwRLc3ikBQREXJttVcABCjzGwrzBDc0-H4sg6NX4VWS14ylrrRhIJQsmoiQ4HyxfpMqCBNRsfaJ4A/s200/JA2010FuturistCover.jpg" /></a>Here are the top ten forecasts for 2010 and beyond.<br /><br />1. Your phone will tell you when you’re in love. Mobile devices are enabling new spontaneous connections in real-world settings, including love connections. One day soon, your phone will play matchmaker, recommending that you introduce yourself to someone nearby whose online profile displays tastes or passions similar to yours. Impossible? An iPhone application called Serendipity is currently being commercialized by MIT researchers.<br /><br />2. In the design economy of the future, people will download and print their own products, including auto parts, jewelry, and even the kitchen sink. Rapid prototyping, or 3-D printing, and devices like the RepRap self-reproducing printer are allowing people to design, customize, and print objects from their home computers. In the future, cheaper versions of these devices could disrupt manufacturing business models, resulting in far cheaper products individually tailored to every customer’s desire.<br /><br />3. The era of brain-to-brain telepathy dawns. Neuroscientist David Poeppel says that telepathic communication between brains is possible, so long as “communication” is understood to be electromagnetic signals and not words. Technologies like magnetoencephalography, which pick up the various signals the brain sends out, could be used to pick up specific signals and convey them. If you could train your brain to signal in Morse code, sensors in a helmet could pick up the message and send it to another helmet.<br /><br />4. Tomorrow’s inventors will spend their days writing descriptions of the problems they want to solve, and then letting computers find the solutions. Invention programs like Gregory Hornby’s “evolutionary algorithm” have been used to invent real-world objects, such as a special space antenna, based entirely on engineering specifications. Continued advances will increasingly rely on cross-fertilization between the fields of biology and computer science. As a result, we will develop not only software that can produce better inventions but also inventions that are able to adapt to their environments.<br /><br />5. Micronations built on artificial islands will dramatically shift the face of global politics. New forms of government and unusual political models will begin to emerge, including corporate nation-states, religious states, tax-free zones, single-function countries, cause-related countries, and even rental nation-states, where organizations can “rent a country” for a year or two to test a specific project.<br /><br />6. Young people will read more, and the old will play more video games. According to the 2007 American Time Use Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed some surprising findings. In 2007, adults aged 75 and older spent nearly twice as much time playing video games (about 20 minutes) as they did in 2006. Teens aged 15–19 spent twice as much time reading as they did before (about 14 minutes) and less time using a computer for games or casual surfing.<br /><br />7. Ammonia may become the fuel of choice for cars by 2020. As a candidate source for hydrogen used in fuel cells, ammonia (comprising one nitrogen and three hydrogen atoms) is plentiful, easier to liquefy than methane, and emits nitrogen rather than carbon, thus having fewer negative impacts on the climate.<br /><br />8. Algae may become the new oil. According to researchers at a Department of Energy plant in New Mexico, single-celled microalgae, grown in pond water, produce a biofuel that is lead-free and biodegradable, emits two-thirds less carbon dioxide and other pollutants than gasoline, and can run any modern diesel engine. Even better, algae require only a fraction of the land area of biofuel-producing crops.<br /><br />9. Radical methods of altering the planet may be the only way to prevent the worst effects of climate change. Geoengineering may be inevitable because, even if humans could instantly end all greenhouse gas emissions, global temperatures would continue to increase for the next 20–30 years, triggering feedback loops and more warming. Potential megascale geoengineering projects include sending space mirrors into orbit, sequestering carbon in the ground in biomass charcoal, and increasing the amount of carbon that the ocean can absorb by forcing plankton blooms in the seas.<br /><br />10. The existence of extraterrestrial life will be confirmed or conclusively denied within a generation. New space missions and advanced computer technology could confirm the existence of extraterrestrials soon. Scientists using NASA’s Spitzer Space Telescope have found that at least 20%—and perhaps as many as 60%—of Sun-like stars could have rocky planets. Next generation, AI-driven space probes may allow us to plot the location of every planetary body in the known universe. Among the more than 300 extra-solar worlds already discovered, probably one has some form of life, according to Dimitar Sasselov, an astronomer and director of Harvard University’s Origins of Life Initiative.Nelson Limahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04197454495755218569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8110162597596603071.post-72761912148570207982010-05-15T15:16:00.000+01:002010-08-17T16:19:58.989+01:00Welcome to the future...<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVonBjueFZLxkwCatjvBnbRSBRB4aALuX4C55ZkFxbniZG9y2PLO-y2Q0Cv-s-4mcpz0iTqy3i_yfD99GMEIgic6iDxiBDX55hxKK6kgev9sWvYh4z5LjWX5beR7yXZnXwKoUcX4xXxtXf/s1600-h/extreme+future.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; DISPLAY: block" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5237466026895481154" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVonBjueFZLxkwCatjvBnbRSBRB4aALuX4C55ZkFxbniZG9y2PLO-y2Q0Cv-s-4mcpz0iTqy3i_yfD99GMEIgic6iDxiBDX55hxKK6kgev9sWvYh4z5LjWX5beR7yXZnXwKoUcX4xXxtXf/s400/extreme+future.jpg" /></a><br /><div align="center"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; DISPLAY: block" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5237381988711682482" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkk7cPk0hnGWf-8xGRh2fxwYVJFPx7w5is4J3ayZliL0p49NI3ytns7wneuim8ws5CYZ_LYDUWFbR3IFyzFjkW3mQquZ_sKD91yWoNb-zsjc9mDb_X9IpMYbsRig7SonfVf488g5mkMvGT/s400/are+you+ready.JPG" /></div>Nelson Limahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04197454495755218569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8110162597596603071.post-34247029903218973152010-01-26T14:15:00.002+00:002010-08-17T16:20:55.692+01:00World Future Society<p align="center"><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/byih4QJTkJM&hl=pt_PT&fs=1&rel=0"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/byih4QJTkJM&hl=pt_PT&fs=1&rel=0" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object></p>Nelson Limahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04197454495755218569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8110162597596603071.post-42862827531731907972009-08-04T12:46:00.000+01:002009-08-04T12:48:02.377+01:00News from Institute for Alternative Futures<strong><span style="color:#ff6600;">Disruptive Innovation: The Future of Primary Health Care</span></strong><a title="PrimaryCare" name="PrimaryCare"></a><br /> <br />IAF Senior Associate Jay Herson was recently published in the Conference Volume for the World Futures Society annual meeting, <a href="mhtml:%7B2CB1219E-39D1-41E0-9B4D-7948BE4A9FD6%7Dmid://00002174/!x-usc:http://e2ma.net/go/2264429557/2060210/77075909/14725/goto:http://www.wfs.org/2009main.htm" target="_blank">WorldFuture 2009: Innovation and Creativity in a Complex World</a>. The paper makes the case that health-care reform and market forces will force walk-in retail clinics to evolve, via a disruptive innovation, into retail pharmacy-based primary care group practices with physicians added to the provider team. There are currently about 2,000 walk-in clinics, with services provided by nurse practitioners and physician assistants, located at chain retail pharmacy sites.<br /> <br />Health-care reform is likely to provide incentives in primary care for electronic medical records, e-prescribing, and use of evidence-based disease management protocols. These innovations require large information technology infrastructures and levels of medical supervision and computer expertise. The transition created by health-care reform will create a more patient-centric system and attract a new generation of physicians interested in practicing medicine without the need to be involved in business issues. <br /> <br />The ability to retrieve patient information from any location is likely to expand the services and the customer base of retail clinics. The future of primary care will likely include the expansion of retail pharmacy clinics into employee health offices for large companies. The transition will result in a standardization of primary care processes and changing the doctor-patient relationship. Retail pharmacy based clinics offer the scale necessary to bring about many innovations in health-care reform and to offer reasonable, although perhaps not optimal, care for most primary-care indications.<br /> <br />You can order a copy of the WFS Conference Volume <a href="mhtml:%7B2CB1219E-39D1-41E0-9B4D-7948BE4A9FD6%7Dmid://00002174/!x-usc:http://e2ma.net/go/2264429557/2060210/77075908/14725/goto:http://www.wfs.org/2009main.htm" target="_blank">here</a> on the WFS website.<br /><br /><strong><span style="color:#ff6600;">IAF Launches Presence in Social Networks</span></strong><a title="SocialNet" name="SocialNet"></a><br /> <br />In January, IAF unveiled a new look, revealing a change in logo to represent the first step in a longer process to update IAF's brand to reflect how its role, mission and capabilities have evolved over the past three decades. Another step in this process has been greater use of social networking tools to increase IAF's exposure in discussions about the future. IAF now has a <a href="mhtml:%7B2CB1219E-39D1-41E0-9B4D-7948BE4A9FD6%7Dmid://00002174/!x-usc:http://e2ma.net/go/2264429557/2060210/77075907/14725/goto:http://www.youtube.com/altfutures" target="_blank">YouTube Channel</a> featuring a short <a href="mhtml:%7B2CB1219E-39D1-41E0-9B4D-7948BE4A9FD6%7Dmid://00002174/!x-usc:http://e2ma.net/go/2264429557/2060210/77075906/14725/goto:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-vPjinw9zo&feature=channel_page" target="_blank">video introduction to IAF President Jonathan Peck</a> and excerpts from a speech by IAF Chairman Clem Bezold to Fleishman-Hillard on the <a href="mhtml:%7B2CB1219E-39D1-41E0-9B4D-7948BE4A9FD6%7Dmid://00002174/!x-usc:http://e2ma.net/go/2264429557/2060210/77075905/14725/goto:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_rhDRWL2sy0" target="_blank">Future of Food</a> and <a href="mhtml:%7B2CB1219E-39D1-41E0-9B4D-7948BE4A9FD6%7Dmid://00002174/!x-usc:http://e2ma.net/go/2264429557/2060210/77075904/14725/goto:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ao_BhCFGco&feature=related" target="_blank">Preventing and Reversing Diabetes</a>. IAF has a new <a href="mhtml:%7B2CB1219E-39D1-41E0-9B4D-7948BE4A9FD6%7Dmid://00002174/!x-usc:http://e2ma.net/go/2264429557/2060210/77075903/14725/goto:http://www.facebook.com/pages/Institute-for-Alternative-Futures/227831155314?v=wall&viewas=100000084920260&ref=nf" target="_blank">Facebook "fan page,"</a> a <a href="mhtml:%7B2CB1219E-39D1-41E0-9B4D-7948BE4A9FD6%7Dmid://00002174/!x-usc:http://e2ma.net/go/2264429557/2060210/77075902/14725/goto:http://www.linkedin.com/groups?about=&gid=2125369&trk=anet_ug_grppro" target="_blank">LinkedIn group</a>, and a WordPress blog for the <a href="mhtml:%7B2CB1219E-39D1-41E0-9B4D-7948BE4A9FD6%7Dmid://00002174/!x-usc:http://e2ma.net/go/2264429557/2060210/77075901/14725/goto:http://authenticfutures.wordpress.com/" target="_blank">Authentic Futures Project</a>.<br />These social networking tools are designed to keep you better updated with IAF, as well as to open up meaningful discussions about futures and foresight. So become a <a href="mhtml:%7B2CB1219E-39D1-41E0-9B4D-7948BE4A9FD6%7Dmid://00002174/!x-usc:http://e2ma.net/go/2264429557/2060210/77075900/14725/goto:http://www.facebook.com/pages/Institute-for-Alternative-Futures/227831155314?v=wall&viewas=100000084920260&ref=nf" target="_blank">fan of IAF</a> on Facebook, join our <a href="mhtml:%7B2CB1219E-39D1-41E0-9B4D-7948BE4A9FD6%7Dmid://00002174/!x-usc:http://e2ma.net/go/2264429557/2060210/77075899/14725/goto:http://www.linkedin.com/groups?about=&gid=2125369&trk=anet_ug_grppro" target="_blank">IAF LinkedIn group</a>, and let us know what you think on the <a href="mhtml:%7B2CB1219E-39D1-41E0-9B4D-7948BE4A9FD6%7Dmid://00002174/!x-usc:http://e2ma.net/go/2264429557/2060210/77075898/14725/goto:http://authenticfutures.wordpress.com/" target="_blank">Authentic Futures blog</a>. We hope you will take advantage of these avenues to explore the future with us.Pro-Poor Foresight Articles Published <a title="ProPoor" name="ProPoor"></a>The Institute for Alternative Futures recently collaborated with foresight: The Journal of Futures Studies, Strategic Thinking and Policy to put together a special edition highlighting a recent workshop on Foresight for Smart Globalization: Accelerating and Enhancing Pro-Poor Development Opportunities. The workshop was supported by the Rockefeller Foundation and facilitated by IAF. It included leading thinkers in foresight, development and policy from around the globe. Papers from the workshop have been updated and published in the latest edition of foresight. Included in the latest issue are illustrations from the meeting by futurist and graphic facilitator, Joe Ravetz. Upcoming EventsIAF is planning a Foresight Seminar in September on "Healthcare Reform Through The Looking Glass of Myeloma" that will look at needed changes in medicine, regulation and reimbursement.<br />IAF is organizing an invitational workshop on "Optimal Futures for Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies" planned for September 22, 2009 in Washington, D.C. with funding from the Society for Women's Health Research.Nelson Limahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04197454495755218569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8110162597596603071.post-4094810709682326362009-02-25T16:41:00.002+00:002009-02-25T16:46:36.363+00:00Watch on the World Future Society's channel at YouTube<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilIczQsABa_-9oq8EFKsW5lvP2tgvba3jeWtXgSjzwvXg9y1qTGtraaEf9DufuiDXdg3HFELIi5ajfdvqCGx4AwXCLWn69hm01jBg4Zv74IsuLHZ1eMlMRPzi6pTz5jpW7_UjSN-9Bs6Jd/s1600-h/coress.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5306777172470796210" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 318px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 320px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilIczQsABa_-9oq8EFKsW5lvP2tgvba3jeWtXgSjzwvXg9y1qTGtraaEf9DufuiDXdg3HFELIi5ajfdvqCGx4AwXCLWn69hm01jBg4Zv74IsuLHZ1eMlMRPzi6pTz5jpW7_UjSN-9Bs6Jd/s320/coress.jpg" border="0" /></a>Part 1 <a href="mhtml:%7B2CB1219E-39D1-41E0-9B4D-7948BE4A9FD6%7Dmid://00000317/!x-usc:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZaNZ9DUZ_iQ">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZaNZ9DUZ_iQ</a><br /><div>Part 2 <a href="mhtml:%7B2CB1219E-39D1-41E0-9B4D-7948BE4A9FD6%7Dmid://00000317/!x-usc:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjWyS3UgW7g">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjWyS3UgW7g</a> </div><div>Part 3 <a href="mhtml:%7B2CB1219E-39D1-41E0-9B4D-7948BE4A9FD6%7Dmid://00000317/!x-usc:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcRVK0ulT78">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcRVK0ulT78</a> </div>Nelson Limahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04197454495755218569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8110162597596603071.post-37878026533387152382008-11-21T18:42:00.001+00:002008-11-21T18:46:10.738+00:00The Future of the Planet<span style="color:#ffcc00;"><span style="font-size:130%;">Spirituality and Capitalism</span><br /></span>For many of us the past few months have felt incredibly volatile. What I have appreciated most about resting as a witness to this volatility is the profound study of contrasts offered: at a time when we are confronted by what I have come to call “meltdown capitalism” we have also collectively acted to elect a historic and rare inspirational figure to the highest political office in the world.... [+<a href="http://integrallife.com/company/future-planet-spirituality-and-capitalism">More...</a> ]Nelson Limahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04197454495755218569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8110162597596603071.post-34315835664981873822008-11-19T13:46:00.002+00:002008-11-19T13:51:47.584+00:00Future of the U.S. Space Program<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWLWZ8E6xuQRa6c1t41arBezwUJ9gPd3TdGSUDoZ9Hzkgy9mIhxR2f_V76atxsJHeeTp0iA3RKTjVJ6YR5HeooTzyp4b17MOQCZNkz4cF09xIdR4pcAaXBLbNlGB3IcC6ya9qSKAB4V2K2/s1600-h/future-of-space-barack-obama_1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5270364894070679106" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 320px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWLWZ8E6xuQRa6c1t41arBezwUJ9gPd3TdGSUDoZ9Hzkgy9mIhxR2f_V76atxsJHeeTp0iA3RKTjVJ6YR5HeooTzyp4b17MOQCZNkz4cF09xIdR4pcAaXBLbNlGB3IcC6ya9qSKAB4V2K2/s400/future-of-space-barack-obama_1.jpg" border="0" /></a>As the moments tick away before <a href="http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=space-shuttle-crew-practi">tonight's scheduled launch</a> of the space shuttle Endeavour to the International Space Station (ISS), another countdown is underway: Only a handful of launches remain before the shuttle program's scheduled retirement in 2010. When President-elect Barack Obama takes office two months from now, he and his aides will need to decide quickly whether or not to hold to that date, a determination that will have major implications for the future of U.S. space exploration. <a href="http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=future-of-space-barack-obama&sc=WR_20081118">Read more....</a>Nelson Limahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04197454495755218569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8110162597596603071.post-80312913817627607872008-11-06T12:52:00.003+00:002013-12-23T13:43:25.822+00:00The Future of Foresight under Obama<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiP041isnEiLiTMC9LsqeFt2PiN2Ubzxf9nNo_8acXKlIdYm9fRHtx9dhAIDzVBB5aV3Cu4iY5KVyLMKzRUXxcXZO3B0Q6utzNHAZNCmkuQhGR-thAavxPx8kSHEbaRfOjviWPt7dCQE_Bt/s1600/incerteza.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiP041isnEiLiTMC9LsqeFt2PiN2Ubzxf9nNo_8acXKlIdYm9fRHtx9dhAIDzVBB5aV3Cu4iY5KVyLMKzRUXxcXZO3B0Q6utzNHAZNCmkuQhGR-thAavxPx8kSHEbaRfOjviWPt7dCQE_Bt/s320/incerteza.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<em><span style="font-size: 85%;"><span style="color: #ffcc33;">By IAF V.P. for Business Development and Futurist</span> </span></em><a href="mhtml:%7B2CB1219E-39D1-41E0-9B4D-7948BE4A9FD6%7Dmid://00000331/!x-usc:http://e2ma.net/go/1460960858/1335279/48825741/goto:http://www.altfutures.com/futurists_det.asp?staff=19" target="_blank"><em><span style="font-size: 85%;">Eric Meade</span></em></a><br />
<a href="mhtml:%7B2CB1219E-39D1-41E0-9B4D-7948BE4A9FD6%7Dmid://00000331/!x-usc:http://e2ma.net/go/1460960858/1335279/48825741/goto:http://www.altfutures.com/futurists_det.asp?staff=19" target="_blank"><em><span style="font-size: 85%;"><br /></span></em></a>
The Democratic Party described the presidential election of 2008 as a choice between the past and the future, and at least generationally, that is true. More significantly, however, the election of Obama suggests a marked change in the way our government and society will think about the future.<br />
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Commenting on the Russia-Georgia conflict during the October 7th "town hall" debate with John McCain, President-elect Obama said, "<em>The other thing we have to do, though, is we've got to see around the corners. We've got to anticipate some of these problems ahead of time...We haven't been doing enough of that."</em><br />
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Futurists see around the corners by trying to anticipate major shifts or conflicts ahead of time.<br />
As a new administration comes into office under President Obama, there is tremendous opportunity to return active foresight to the top levels of government.<br />
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During the 1970's, many foresight programs existed at various levels of government. Examples include Congress' Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) and Congressional Clearinghouse on the Future as well as several projects in "anticipatory democracy," such as Gov. Jimmy Carter's "Goals for Georgia" and Gov. Dan Evans' "Alternatives for Washington."<br />
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In 1974, the House Select Committee on Committees stipulated that each standing committee "<em>shall review and study on a continuing basis undertake futures research and forecasting on matters within its jurisdiction</em>," a rarely observed requirement that remains on the books to this day.An Obama administration is likely to revive this tradition of government foresight. Several members of Obama's team, including Daniel Kammen, an energy and public policy professor at the University of California (Berkley), are long-range thinkers with experience with futures work or with long-term strategy projects. The transition team has also expressed interest in several projects focused on long-term futures, including the Project for National Security Reform.<br />
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In fact, the election of Obama and the re-emergence of a general interest in foresight are things a futurist might have foreseen, even in early 2007 when pundits were predicting a grueling death-match between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani. First, the passing of the leadership torch from the Boomers to Generation X has profound implications, freeing Boomers to play a visionary elder role while the more pragmatic crisis-responders of Gen X take the reins of power.<br />
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In his Martin Luther King, Jr. Day speech, Obama said:<br />
<em><span style="font-size: 85%;">And that is what is at stake in the great political debate we are having today. The changes that are needed are not just a matter of tinkering at the edges, and they will not come if politicians simply tell us what we want to hear. All of us will be called upon to make some sacrifice. None of us will be exempt from responsibility.</span></em><br />
<em><span style="font-size: 85%;"><br /></span></em>
By articulating the depth of the challenges ahead, Obama has unleashed the energy of the younger "Millennials," for whom civic engagement is much more important than for any other generation since the G.I.'s of World War II.<br />
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Second, Obama has frequently spoken to issues many futurists have suggested will become dominant themes of the 21st century, such as holistic problem-solving, a collective rather than self-centered disposition, and renewed interest in the Common Good. The emergence of a collective and holistic view of the world, of which Obama's election may be more evidence than cause, would initiate a profound reorganization of our economy around new priorities and values.<br />
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Regardless of what specific values emerge during the next four years or beyond, it is clear that the U.S. is ready for a new approach to the future that envisions and creates the type of world we would like to give to our children. The crises we face in the economy, health care, and the environment reach down to the foundations of our worldview and the lifestyle it suggests. Obama's embrace of foresight as a means to tackle these crises suggests that - by envisioning the future we prefer - we will have a better chance to create it.Nelson Limahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04197454495755218569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8110162597596603071.post-20821611472912782442008-10-28T11:58:00.005+00:002008-10-28T12:04:27.235+00:00No future for the human race!<img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5262173405629484658" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 206px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKbxfOjHqJ863ZYfTW9XG6cJBjqNDJnZ5L5cfq-uvWDT7jh4jVPpkaLZ3JbG4xOlH4nuJBTdZNSgGJLmcj9e2NbdzzIDyQlqWxTyLhjzKSLz9gebOZ2hkwuHjtthgLsaFyUhh4xg2SBScX/s400/futuro+7.jpg" border="0" /><br /><div><a href="http://www.dailygalaxy.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/05/09/space_exploration_2.jpg"></a><a href="http://www.dailygalaxy.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/05/09/space_exploration.jpg"></a>Humans have always been fascinated by the idea of space travel. Some even believe that colonizing new planets is man’s best hope for the future. The popular idea is that we’ll eventually need some fresh, unexploited new worlds to inhabit.<br />Professor Stephen Hawking, celebrated expert on the cosmological theories of gravity and black holes, believes that traveling into space is the only way humans will be able to survive in the long-term. He has said, "<em>Life on Earth is at the ever-increasing risk of being wiped out by a disaster such as sudden global warming, nuclear war, a genetically engineered virus or other dangers ... I think the human race has no future if it doesn't go into space</em>." Another of his famous quotes reiterates his position that we need to get off the planet relatively soon. "<em>I don't think the human race will survive the next 1,000 years unless we spread into space</em>."</div><div>Read more >><a href="http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2007/05/the_hawking_sol.html">The "Hawking Solution": Will Saving Humanity Require Leaving Earth Behind?</a><br /></div>Nelson Limahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04197454495755218569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8110162597596603071.post-23926317180819309752008-10-08T10:59:00.003+01:002008-10-08T11:08:08.625+01:00BUYology...says Martin Lindstrom!The forthcoming book <em><span style="color:#ff0000;">Buyology, The Truth and Lies About Why We Buy</span></em> by Lindstrom will be published by Random House Doubleday, on October 20th, this year.<br />The book is based on the largest neuromarketing study ever conducted in the world. A 7 million study which has gone to explore the truth and lies about why we buy. It contains some ground breaking findings, so ground breaking that CBS/60 Minutes will run a special on the book October 19th this year. The same will happen on <em>The Today Show</em> on October 20th.<br /><em><span style="color:#ff0000;">Buyology, The Truth and Lies About Why We Buy</span></em>. And we ask: <span style="color:#ffff00;"><strong>are you ready for the revolution?</strong></span>Nelson Limahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04197454495755218569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8110162597596603071.post-41802928589755884022008-10-01T11:40:00.006+01:002008-10-01T11:47:36.341+01:00PREDICTING FUTURE HAPPINESS<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIo2IyqJ3Dp3CuOFEcpQ7rbMFRF3T5Lu20dUIm09jELOUJyJ1r1kGn34cF2yzk_xmmeRfp3VEoAzhHQkfF_s4M8h9B_msxDXUMCcv2s-5oiXmC5ZJzaiBxy1sjXPCMgNbM3OYLk7viQNHO/s1600-h/Artificial_intelligence.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5252133692407088130" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIo2IyqJ3Dp3CuOFEcpQ7rbMFRF3T5Lu20dUIm09jELOUJyJ1r1kGn34cF2yzk_xmmeRfp3VEoAzhHQkfF_s4M8h9B_msxDXUMCcv2s-5oiXmC5ZJzaiBxy1sjXPCMgNbM3OYLk7viQNHO/s200/Artificial_intelligence.jpg" border="0" /></a>Some people are naturally optimistic or pessimistic, but how accuratelythey predict the level of satisfaction they may attain in the future depends on a variety of factors, according to research published in PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE.<br />In a study led by Brandeis University psychologist Margie Lachman, subjects were surveyed over a nine-year period. In the first survey, in1995-1996, participants between the ages of 24 and 74 rated their satisfaction with life now, with life 10 years earlier, and with howlife may be in another 10 years. They were asked the same questions again in 2004.<br />Lachman and colleagues discovered that there are age-related differences in how individuals view both the past and the future; thoseage 65 and older rated the past and present equally satisfying but predicted that the future would be less satisfying. Those under age 65 were more optimistic about the future and believed they would be moresatisfied a decade hence.<br />"<em>These more negative expectations from older adults may be their way ofbracing for an uncertain future, a perspective that can serve aprotective function in the face of losses and that can have positive consequences if life circunstances turn out to be better than expected</em>," says Lachman.<br /><span style="font-size:85%;">SOURCE: "<em>Realism and Illusion in Americans'</em> Temporal Views of TheirLife Satisfaction," PSYCHOLOGICAL SICENCE (September 2008)</span><a href="http://www.psychologicalscience.org/"><span style="font-size:85%;">www.psychologicalscience.org</span></a><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-family:arial;font-size:130%;color:#ff6600;">GAMING FOR FORECASTERS</span></strong><br />A new research platform for collaboratively imagining futures scenarios through games has been launched by the Institute for the Future, an independent nonprofit research organization based in Palo Alto,California.<br />The first game to be launched in the new Massively MultiplayerForecasting platform is the Superstruct Game, which asks players to consider solutions to superthreats such as global food shortages, masshomelessness, and pandemics.<br />Other games will include earthquakes simulations and care giving. The goals of the games are to "<em>addressreal-world problems by harnessing the wisdom of crowds</em>," according tothe Institute.<br />Says IFTF's Howard Rheingold. "<em>Massively multiplayer forecasting gamesis not just a new tool for forecasting, but also a continuation of IFTF's efforts to make forecasting more public, more inclusive, and more experiential</em>."<br />Among the IFTF researchers involved in developing the Superstruct Game is Jamais Cascio, whose article on scenarios for the Singularity will appear in the November-December 2008 issue of THE FUTURIST.<br /><span style="font-size:85%;">SOURCES: Institute for the Future, </span><a href="mhtml:%7B2CB1219E-39D1-41E0-9B4D-7948BE4A9FD6%7Dmid://00000242/!x-usc:http://www.iftf.org/"><span style="font-size:85%;">www.iftf.org</span></a>Nelson Limahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04197454495755218569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8110162597596603071.post-33598708292880105462008-09-19T12:04:00.003+01:002008-09-19T12:09:23.269+01:0018 Billion Suns!<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiupKNUPrA5-yu8IVGKpUMg98Y9qML5eRWMs0hMNFOE3EPaqRIFky5Ptok7CtnFp7aKsu6D5BNvQsIg0Rz3a2721oBGnv6RCXhh0xMjef2uXwieImaliexsgJQN1ppseiAKLoZ4v93PAdel/s1600-h/universe1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5247687902574570722" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiupKNUPrA5-yu8IVGKpUMg98Y9qML5eRWMs0hMNFOE3EPaqRIFky5Ptok7CtnFp7aKsu6D5BNvQsIg0Rz3a2721oBGnv6RCXhh0xMjef2uXwieImaliexsgJQN1ppseiAKLoZ4v93PAdel/s200/universe1.jpg" border="0" /></a>Scientists have determined the mass of the largest things that could possibly exist in our universe. New results have placed an upper limit on the current size of black holes - and at fifty billion suns it's pretty damn big. That's a hundred thousand tredagrams, and you'll never get the chance to use that word in relation to anything else.<a id="more"></a><br />Black holes are regions of space where matter is so dense that regular physics just breaks down. You might think physical laws are immutable - you can't get out of gravitational attraction the same way you can get out of a speeding ticket - but beyond a certain level laws which determine how matter is regulated are simply overloaded and material is crushed down into something that's less an object and more a region of altered space.<br />While there's theoretically no upper limit on how big a black hole can be, there are hard limits on how big they could have become by now. The universe has only existed for a finite amount of time, and even the most voracious black hole can only suck in matter at a certain rate. The bigger the black hole, the bigger the gravitational field and the faster it can pull in matter - but that same huge gravitational gradient means that the same matter can release huge amounts of radiation as it falls, blasting other matter further away.<br />Based on this self-regulating maximum rate, scientists at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Massachusetts, and the European Southern Observatory, Chile, have calculated an upper limit for these mega-mammoth masses. Fifty billion suns, that's 100 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 kg, otherwise known as "ridiculously stupidly big" and triple the size of the largest observed black hole, OJ 287.<br />There are potential problems with this calculation. Based as it is on the radiation outflow from a black hole, new discoveries could change this estimate - though only from "insanely massive" to "ridiculously ginormous."<br /><span style="font-size:85%;">Luke McKinney.<br /></span>Do you like it? Read more...<br /><a href="http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2008/03/18-billion-suns.html">18 Billion Suns -A Galaxy Classic: Biggest Black Hole in Universe Discovered—and it’s BIG</a><a href="http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2007/08/astronomers-pio.html">Neutron Stars: New Discovery Proves Einstein's Space-Time Predictions</a><a href="http:///">Mystery Neutron Star DiscoveredAndromeda Galaxy & Its Mystery Core: Destined to Merge With the Milky Way?Neutron Stars & The Physics of Star TrekNew, Revised Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy</a><a href="http://http//www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2007/07/black-holes-hel.html">Black Holes Key to Mapping the Evolution of the Universe</a><a href="http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2008/01/is-the-milky-wa.html">NASA Finds Bizarre Planet-Mass Orbiting Neutron Star in the Constellation SagittariusThe Milky Way's X Factor: Rogue Planet Devouring Black Holes</a><a href="http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2008/01/is-the-milky-wa.html"></a><br />Sources:<br /><a href="http://space.newscientist.com/article/dn14653-how-big-can-a-black-hole-grow.html">Upper limit on black hole size </a><a href="http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2008/03/18-billion-suns.html">The biggest black hole yet seen </a>Nelson Limahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04197454495755218569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8110162597596603071.post-75902736645174670942008-09-16T17:21:00.004+01:002008-09-16T17:25:51.124+01:00Neurotechology<span style="color:#ffff00;"><strong>>></strong></span> <a title="Permanent Link to The Future of Computer-assisted Cognitive Therapy" href="http://www.sharpbrains.com/blog/2008/09/03/the-future-of-computerized-cognitive-therapy/" rel="bookmark">The Future of Computer-assisted Cognitive Therapy</a><br />Cognitive therapy is one of the most researched types of brain training, especially in dealing with depression and anxiety. Why don't more people benefit today from it? The lack of a scalable distribution model may perhaps explain that. We predict that technology will help complement the role of therapists, helping more people better cope with change, life, anxiety, and a range of cognitive and emotional challenges. Without any stigma. Just as naturally as one trains abdominal muscles today.Nelson Limahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04197454495755218569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8110162597596603071.post-25488870149154705532008-09-06T18:21:00.004+01:002008-09-06T18:25:17.843+01:00South Korea´s new cultural tower<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghr7qEk4lrLdN1Shw9uDwy_UK4P2o5KK1OX75-QTz6IXjdlwi0n_Ne1N9ZkvNsua2UP-QrlVQWskH_TY2wiWNbeniHOCwfY187ORbLu-EdC7ePNEv84CbB2-ht6mX0GiuqCmZO1clgN_rf/s1600-h/10250_infinity7main.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5242960086613152834" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghr7qEk4lrLdN1Shw9uDwy_UK4P2o5KK1OX75-QTz6IXjdlwi0n_Ne1N9ZkvNsua2UP-QrlVQWskH_TY2wiWNbeniHOCwfY187ORbLu-EdC7ePNEv84CbB2-ht6mX0GiuqCmZO1clgN_rf/s400/10250_infinity7main.jpg" border="0" /></a>The concept for Cheongna City Tower in Incheon, South Korea, differs from other highrises in both purpose and message. Designed to emanate a sense of hope throughout the world, GDS Architects’ ‘invisible’ 446m tower design (aka Tower Infinity) illustrates a humbleness and innocence from which a cultural centre, observation deck and other community facilities will function.<br />GDS beat 146 entries from 46 countries to win Korea Land Corporation’s design competition in March with their crystalline shard design that they gave the slogan ‘In the absence of matter is the presence of hope’. <a class="listlink" href="http://www.worldarchitecturenews.com/index.php?fuseaction=wanappln.projectview&upload_id=10250" target="_new">Read more...</a>Nelson Limahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04197454495755218569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8110162597596603071.post-28578982502092638942008-09-06T18:17:00.002+01:002008-09-06T18:28:39.943+01:00<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2koC_mP63qszwLB4tmJ-uEiGXN6JpeK8uxHVZ6W_-R8aC1byiNYlo6nzy7OpUegIswYF-3uDBb4l8tplmblFqDW_Zm18IVK7eI6l8ulpxOqG4rQ7npWgaMUchl9hcd_0caZHwO347erJT/s1600-h/10224_Pyramids1main.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5242961170732503858" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2koC_mP63qszwLB4tmJ-uEiGXN6JpeK8uxHVZ6W_-R8aC1byiNYlo6nzy7OpUegIswYF-3uDBb4l8tplmblFqDW_Zm18IVK7eI6l8ulpxOqG4rQ7npWgaMUchl9hcd_0caZHwO347erJT/s320/10224_Pyramids1main.jpg" border="0" /></a>To archaeologists and those who like their history, a ziggurat is a terraced pyramid (image), native to the ancient Mesopotamian valley and Iran. Used as shrines and for escaping from rising flood waters, the ziggurats have revealed much about the culture surrounding their construction.<br />However, the ziggurat is about to enter the common vernacular, hopefully, as something a little more modern.<a id="more"></a><br />Under the watchful eye of Dubai-based Timelinks, an environmental design company, a new project entitled Ziggurat is being proposed as a sustainable city of the future. Able to hold up to a million people, but taking up only 2.3 square kilometers – a tenth of the original land needed for such a group of people – the designers believe that the power of nature will support the Ziggurat. <a class="listlink" href="http://www.worldarchitecturenews.com/index.php?fuseaction=wanappln.projectview&upload_id=10224" target="_new">Read more...</a>Nelson Limahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04197454495755218569noreply@blogger.com