Space Colonization

Our Future or Fantasy?
Humans have always been fascinated by the idea of space travel. Some even believe that colonizing new planets is man’s best hope for the future. The popular idea is that we’ll eventually need some fresh, unexploited new worlds to inhabit.
In a recent Galaxy post Stephen Hawking, world-celebrated expert on the cosmological theories of gravity and black holes who holds Issac Newton's Lucasian Chair at Cambridge University, say that he believes that traveling into space is the only way humans will be able to survive in the long-term.
"Life on Earth," Hawking has said, "is at the ever-increasing risk of being wiped out by a disaster such as sudden global warming, nuclear war, a genetically engineered virus or other dangers ... I think the human race has no future if it doesn't go into space."
Another of his famous quotes reiterates his position that we need to get off the planet relatively soon. "I don't think the human race will survive the next 1,000 years unless we spread into space."
The problems with Hawking’s solution is that while it may save a “seed” of human life- a few lucky specimens- it won’t save Earth’s inhabitants. The majority of Earthlings would surely be left behind on a planet increasingly unfit for life.
In a futuristic mode similar to Hawking, both Steven Dick, chief NASA historian and Carnegie-Mellon robotics pundit, Hans Moravec, believe that human biological evolution is but a passing phase: the future of mankind will be as vastly evolved sentient machines capable of self-replicating and exploring the farthest reaches of the Universe programmed with instructions on how to recreate earth life and humans to target stars.
Dick believes that if there is a flaw in the logic of the Fermi Paradox, and extraterrestrials are a natural outcome of cosmic evolution, then cultural evolution may have resulted in a post-biological universe in which machines are the predominant intelligence.
Renowned science-fiction writer, Charlie Stross, argued last week in his High Frontier Redux blog that space colonization is not in our future, not because it's impossible, but because to do so effectively you need either outrageous amounts of cheap energy, highly efficient robot probes, or "a magic wand."
"I'm going to take it as read that the idea of space colonization isn't unfamiliar," Stross opens his post, "domed cities on Mars, orbiting cylindrical space habitats a la J. D. Bernal or Gerard K. O'Neill, that sort of thing. Generation ships that take hundreds of years to ferry colonists out to other star systems where — as we are now discovering — there are profusions of planets to explore."
"The obstacles facing us are immense distance and time -the scale factor involved in space travel is strongly counter-intuitive."
Stross adds that "Planets that are already habitable insofar as they orbit inside the habitable zone of their star, possess free oxygen in their atmosphere, and have a mass, surface gravity and escape velocity that are not too forbidding, are likely to be somewhat rarer. (And if there is free oxygen in the atmosphere on a planet, that implies something else — the presence of pre-existing photosynthetic life, a carbon cycle, and a bunch of other stuff that could well unleash a big can of whoop-ass on an unprimed human immune system."
Stross sums up by saying that while "I won't rule out the possibility of such seemingly-magical technology appearing at some time in the future in the absence of technology indistinguishable from magic that, interstellar travel for human beings even in the comfort of our own Solar System is near-as-dammit a non-starter."
Stross's blog received over 450 comments as of this writing. The most prescient follows:
"First, Stross's analysis fails to take into account future civilization types; I get the sense that he takes a normative view of today's technological and economic realities and projects them into the future. This is surprising, not only because he's an outstanding science fiction visionary, but also because he's a transhumanist who has a very good grasp on what awaits humanity in the future. Specifically, he should be taking into account the possibility of post-Singularity, Drexlerian, Kardashev Type II civilizations. Essentially, we're talking about post-scarcity civilizations with access to molecular assembling nanotechnology, radically advanced materials, artificial superintelligence, and access to most of the energy available in the solar system.
"Stross also too easily dismisses how machine intelligences, uploaded entities and AGI will impact on how space could be colonized. He speculates about biological humans being sent from solar system to solar system, and complains of the psychological and social hardships that could be inflicted on an individual or crew. He even speculates about the presence of extraterrestrial pathogens that undoubtedly awaits our daring explorers. This is a highly unlikely scenario. Biological humans will have no role to play in space. Instead, this work will be done by robots and quite possibly cyborgs (which is how the term 'cyborg' came to exist in the first place)."
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Transformers -The Movie & Evolution of Machine Intelligence

2010 and beyond!

Here are the top ten forecasts for 2010 and beyond.

1. Your phone will tell you when you’re in love. Mobile devices are enabling new spontaneous connections in real-world settings, including love connections. One day soon, your phone will play matchmaker, recommending that you introduce yourself to someone nearby whose online profile displays tastes or passions similar to yours. Impossible? An iPhone application called Serendipity is currently being commercialized by MIT researchers.

2. In the design economy of the future, people will download and print their own products, including auto parts, jewelry, and even the kitchen sink. Rapid prototyping, or 3-D printing, and devices like the RepRap self-reproducing printer are allowing people to design, customize, and print objects from their home computers. In the future, cheaper versions of these devices could disrupt manufacturing business models, resulting in far cheaper products individually tailored to every customer’s desire.

3. The era of brain-to-brain telepathy dawns. Neuroscientist David Poeppel says that telepathic communication between brains is possible, so long as “communication” is understood to be electromagnetic signals and not words. Technologies like magnetoencephalography, which pick up the various signals the brain sends out, could be used to pick up specific signals and convey them. If you could train your brain to signal in Morse code, sensors in a helmet could pick up the message and send it to another helmet.

4. Tomorrow’s inventors will spend their days writing descriptions of the problems they want to solve, and then letting computers find the solutions. Invention programs like Gregory Hornby’s “evolutionary algorithm” have been used to invent real-world objects, such as a special space antenna, based entirely on engineering specifications. Continued advances will increasingly rely on cross-fertilization between the fields of biology and computer science. As a result, we will develop not only software that can produce better inventions but also inventions that are able to adapt to their environments.

5. Micronations built on artificial islands will dramatically shift the face of global politics. New forms of government and unusual political models will begin to emerge, including corporate nation-states, religious states, tax-free zones, single-function countries, cause-related countries, and even rental nation-states, where organizations can “rent a country” for a year or two to test a specific project.

6. Young people will read more, and the old will play more video games. According to the 2007 American Time Use Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed some surprising findings. In 2007, adults aged 75 and older spent nearly twice as much time playing video games (about 20 minutes) as they did in 2006. Teens aged 15–19 spent twice as much time reading as they did before (about 14 minutes) and less time using a computer for games or casual surfing.

7. Ammonia may become the fuel of choice for cars by 2020. As a candidate source for hydrogen used in fuel cells, ammonia (comprising one nitrogen and three hydrogen atoms) is plentiful, easier to liquefy than methane, and emits nitrogen rather than carbon, thus having fewer negative impacts on the climate.

8. Algae may become the new oil. According to researchers at a Department of Energy plant in New Mexico, single-celled microalgae, grown in pond water, produce a biofuel that is lead-free and biodegradable, emits two-thirds less carbon dioxide and other pollutants than gasoline, and can run any modern diesel engine. Even better, algae require only a fraction of the land area of biofuel-producing crops.

9. Radical methods of altering the planet may be the only way to prevent the worst effects of climate change. Geoengineering may be inevitable because, even if humans could instantly end all greenhouse gas emissions, global temperatures would continue to increase for the next 20–30 years, triggering feedback loops and more warming. Potential megascale geoengineering projects include sending space mirrors into orbit, sequestering carbon in the ground in biomass charcoal, and increasing the amount of carbon that the ocean can absorb by forcing plankton blooms in the seas.

10. The existence of extraterrestrial life will be confirmed or conclusively denied within a generation. New space missions and advanced computer technology could confirm the existence of extraterrestrials soon. Scientists using NASA’s Spitzer Space Telescope have found that at least 20%—and perhaps as many as 60%—of Sun-like stars could have rocky planets. Next generation, AI-driven space probes may allow us to plot the location of every planetary body in the known universe. Among the more than 300 extra-solar worlds already discovered, probably one has some form of life, according to Dimitar Sasselov, an astronomer and director of Harvard University’s Origins of Life Initiative.

Welcome to the future...

World Future Society

News from Institute for Alternative Futures

Disruptive Innovation: The Future of Primary Health Care

IAF Senior Associate Jay Herson was recently published in the Conference Volume for the World Futures Society annual meeting, WorldFuture 2009: Innovation and Creativity in a Complex World. The paper makes the case that health-care reform and market forces will force walk-in retail clinics to evolve, via a disruptive innovation, into retail pharmacy-based primary care group practices with physicians added to the provider team. There are currently about 2,000 walk-in clinics, with services provided by nurse practitioners and physician assistants, located at chain retail pharmacy sites.

Health-care reform is likely to provide incentives in primary care for electronic medical records, e-prescribing, and use of evidence-based disease management protocols. These innovations require large information technology infrastructures and levels of medical supervision and computer expertise. The transition created by health-care reform will create a more patient-centric system and attract a new generation of physicians interested in practicing medicine without the need to be involved in business issues.

The ability to retrieve patient information from any location is likely to expand the services and the customer base of retail clinics. The future of primary care will likely include the expansion of retail pharmacy clinics into employee health offices for large companies. The transition will result in a standardization of primary care processes and changing the doctor-patient relationship. Retail pharmacy based clinics offer the scale necessary to bring about many innovations in health-care reform and to offer reasonable, although perhaps not optimal, care for most primary-care indications.

You can order a copy of the WFS Conference Volume here on the WFS website.

IAF Launches Presence in Social Networks

In January, IAF unveiled a new look, revealing a change in logo to represent the first step in a longer process to update IAF's brand to reflect how its role, mission and capabilities have evolved over the past three decades. Another step in this process has been greater use of social networking tools to increase IAF's exposure in discussions about the future. IAF now has a YouTube Channel featuring a short video introduction to IAF President Jonathan Peck and excerpts from a speech by IAF Chairman Clem Bezold to Fleishman-Hillard on the Future of Food and Preventing and Reversing Diabetes. IAF has a new Facebook "fan page," a LinkedIn group, and a WordPress blog for the Authentic Futures Project.
These social networking tools are designed to keep you better updated with IAF, as well as to open up meaningful discussions about futures and foresight. So become a fan of IAF on Facebook, join our IAF LinkedIn group, and let us know what you think on the Authentic Futures blog. We hope you will take advantage of these avenues to explore the future with us.Pro-Poor Foresight Articles Published The Institute for Alternative Futures recently collaborated with foresight: The Journal of Futures Studies, Strategic Thinking and Policy to put together a special edition highlighting a recent workshop on Foresight for Smart Globalization: Accelerating and Enhancing Pro-Poor Development Opportunities. The workshop was supported by the Rockefeller Foundation and facilitated by IAF. It included leading thinkers in foresight, development and policy from around the globe. Papers from the workshop have been updated and published in the latest edition of foresight. Included in the latest issue are illustrations from the meeting by futurist and graphic facilitator, Joe Ravetz. Upcoming EventsIAF is planning a Foresight Seminar in September on "Healthcare Reform Through The Looking Glass of Myeloma" that will look at needed changes in medicine, regulation and reimbursement.
IAF is organizing an invitational workshop on "Optimal Futures for Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies" planned for September 22, 2009 in Washington, D.C. with funding from the Society for Women's Health Research.

Watch on the World Future Society's channel at YouTube

Part 1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZaNZ9DUZ_iQ

Part 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjWyS3UgW7g

Part 3 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcRVK0ulT78

The Future of the Planet

Spirituality and Capitalism
For many of us the past few months have felt incredibly volatile. What I have appreciated most about resting as a witness to this volatility is the profound study of contrasts offered: at a time when we are confronted by what I have come to call “meltdown capitalism” we have also collectively acted to elect a historic and rare inspirational figure to the highest political office in the world.... [+More... ]

Future of the U.S. Space Program

As the moments tick away before tonight's scheduled launch of the space shuttle Endeavour to the International Space Station (ISS), another countdown is underway: Only a handful of launches remain before the shuttle program's scheduled retirement in 2010. When President-elect Barack Obama takes office two months from now, he and his aides will need to decide quickly whether or not to hold to that date, a determination that will have major implications for the future of U.S. space exploration. Read more....

The Future of Foresight under Obama

By IAF V.P. for Business Development and Futurist Eric Meade

The Democratic Party described the presidential election of 2008 as a choice between the past and the future, and at least generationally, that is true. More significantly, however, the election of Obama suggests a marked change in the way our government and society will think about the future.

Commenting on the Russia-Georgia conflict during the October 7th "town hall" debate with John McCain, President-elect Obama said, "The other thing we have to do, though, is we've got to see around the corners. We've got to anticipate some of these problems ahead of time...We haven't been doing enough of that."

Futurists see around the corners by trying to anticipate major shifts or conflicts ahead of time.
As a new administration comes into office under President Obama, there is tremendous opportunity to return active foresight to the top levels of government.

During the 1970's, many foresight programs existed at various levels of government. Examples include Congress' Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) and Congressional Clearinghouse on the Future as well as several projects in "anticipatory democracy," such as Gov. Jimmy Carter's "Goals for Georgia" and Gov. Dan Evans' "Alternatives for Washington."

In 1974, the House Select Committee on Committees stipulated that each standing committee "shall review and study on a continuing basis undertake futures research and forecasting on matters within its jurisdiction," a rarely observed requirement that remains on the books to this day.An Obama administration is likely to revive this tradition of government foresight. Several members of Obama's team, including Daniel Kammen, an energy and public policy professor at the University of California (Berkley), are long-range thinkers with experience with futures work or with long-term strategy projects. The transition team has also expressed interest in several projects focused on long-term futures, including the Project for National Security Reform.

In fact, the election of Obama and the re-emergence of a general interest in foresight are things a futurist might have foreseen, even in early 2007 when pundits were predicting a grueling death-match between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani. First, the passing of the leadership torch from the Boomers to Generation X has profound implications, freeing Boomers to play a visionary elder role while the more pragmatic crisis-responders of Gen X take the reins of power.

In his Martin Luther King, Jr. Day speech, Obama said:
And that is what is at stake in the great political debate we are having today. The changes that are needed are not just a matter of tinkering at the edges, and they will not come if politicians simply tell us what we want to hear. All of us will be called upon to make some sacrifice. None of us will be exempt from responsibility.

By articulating the depth of the challenges ahead, Obama has unleashed the energy of the younger "Millennials," for whom civic engagement is much more important than for any other generation since the G.I.'s of World War II.

Second, Obama has frequently spoken to issues many futurists have suggested will become dominant themes of the 21st century, such as holistic problem-solving, a collective rather than self-centered disposition, and renewed interest in the Common Good. The emergence of a collective and holistic view of the world, of which Obama's election may be more evidence than cause, would initiate a profound reorganization of our economy around new priorities and values.

Regardless of what specific values emerge during the next four years or beyond, it is clear that the U.S. is ready for a new approach to the future that envisions and creates the type of world we would like to give to our children. The crises we face in the economy, health care, and the environment reach down to the foundations of our worldview and the lifestyle it suggests. Obama's embrace of foresight as a means to tackle these crises suggests that - by envisioning the future we prefer - we will have a better chance to create it.