News from Institute for Alternative Futures

Disruptive Innovation: The Future of Primary Health Care

IAF Senior Associate Jay Herson was recently published in the Conference Volume for the World Futures Society annual meeting, WorldFuture 2009: Innovation and Creativity in a Complex World. The paper makes the case that health-care reform and market forces will force walk-in retail clinics to evolve, via a disruptive innovation, into retail pharmacy-based primary care group practices with physicians added to the provider team. There are currently about 2,000 walk-in clinics, with services provided by nurse practitioners and physician assistants, located at chain retail pharmacy sites.

Health-care reform is likely to provide incentives in primary care for electronic medical records, e-prescribing, and use of evidence-based disease management protocols. These innovations require large information technology infrastructures and levels of medical supervision and computer expertise. The transition created by health-care reform will create a more patient-centric system and attract a new generation of physicians interested in practicing medicine without the need to be involved in business issues.

The ability to retrieve patient information from any location is likely to expand the services and the customer base of retail clinics. The future of primary care will likely include the expansion of retail pharmacy clinics into employee health offices for large companies. The transition will result in a standardization of primary care processes and changing the doctor-patient relationship. Retail pharmacy based clinics offer the scale necessary to bring about many innovations in health-care reform and to offer reasonable, although perhaps not optimal, care for most primary-care indications.

You can order a copy of the WFS Conference Volume here on the WFS website.

IAF Launches Presence in Social Networks

In January, IAF unveiled a new look, revealing a change in logo to represent the first step in a longer process to update IAF's brand to reflect how its role, mission and capabilities have evolved over the past three decades. Another step in this process has been greater use of social networking tools to increase IAF's exposure in discussions about the future. IAF now has a YouTube Channel featuring a short video introduction to IAF President Jonathan Peck and excerpts from a speech by IAF Chairman Clem Bezold to Fleishman-Hillard on the Future of Food and Preventing and Reversing Diabetes. IAF has a new Facebook "fan page," a LinkedIn group, and a WordPress blog for the Authentic Futures Project.
These social networking tools are designed to keep you better updated with IAF, as well as to open up meaningful discussions about futures and foresight. So become a fan of IAF on Facebook, join our IAF LinkedIn group, and let us know what you think on the Authentic Futures blog. We hope you will take advantage of these avenues to explore the future with us.Pro-Poor Foresight Articles Published The Institute for Alternative Futures recently collaborated with foresight: The Journal of Futures Studies, Strategic Thinking and Policy to put together a special edition highlighting a recent workshop on Foresight for Smart Globalization: Accelerating and Enhancing Pro-Poor Development Opportunities. The workshop was supported by the Rockefeller Foundation and facilitated by IAF. It included leading thinkers in foresight, development and policy from around the globe. Papers from the workshop have been updated and published in the latest edition of foresight. Included in the latest issue are illustrations from the meeting by futurist and graphic facilitator, Joe Ravetz. Upcoming EventsIAF is planning a Foresight Seminar in September on "Healthcare Reform Through The Looking Glass of Myeloma" that will look at needed changes in medicine, regulation and reimbursement.
IAF is organizing an invitational workshop on "Optimal Futures for Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies" planned for September 22, 2009 in Washington, D.C. with funding from the Society for Women's Health Research.