PREDICTING FUTURE HAPPINESS

Some people are naturally optimistic or pessimistic, but how accuratelythey predict the level of satisfaction they may attain in the future depends on a variety of factors, according to research published in PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE.
In a study led by Brandeis University psychologist Margie Lachman, subjects were surveyed over a nine-year period. In the first survey, in1995-1996, participants between the ages of 24 and 74 rated their satisfaction with life now, with life 10 years earlier, and with howlife may be in another 10 years. They were asked the same questions again in 2004.
Lachman and colleagues discovered that there are age-related differences in how individuals view both the past and the future; thoseage 65 and older rated the past and present equally satisfying but predicted that the future would be less satisfying. Those under age 65 were more optimistic about the future and believed they would be moresatisfied a decade hence.
"These more negative expectations from older adults may be their way ofbracing for an uncertain future, a perspective that can serve aprotective function in the face of losses and that can have positive consequences if life circunstances turn out to be better than expected," says Lachman.
SOURCE: "Realism and Illusion in Americans' Temporal Views of TheirLife Satisfaction," PSYCHOLOGICAL SICENCE (September 2008)www.psychologicalscience.org

GAMING FOR FORECASTERS
A new research platform for collaboratively imagining futures scenarios through games has been launched by the Institute for the Future, an independent nonprofit research organization based in Palo Alto,California.
The first game to be launched in the new Massively MultiplayerForecasting platform is the Superstruct Game, which asks players to consider solutions to superthreats such as global food shortages, masshomelessness, and pandemics.
Other games will include earthquakes simulations and care giving. The goals of the games are to "addressreal-world problems by harnessing the wisdom of crowds," according tothe Institute.
Says IFTF's Howard Rheingold. "Massively multiplayer forecasting gamesis not just a new tool for forecasting, but also a continuation of IFTF's efforts to make forecasting more public, more inclusive, and more experiential."
Among the IFTF researchers involved in developing the Superstruct Game is Jamais Cascio, whose article on scenarios for the Singularity will appear in the November-December 2008 issue of THE FUTURIST.
SOURCES: Institute for the Future, www.iftf.org